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Old 27-08-2014, 15:23:21   #101
MoSe
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thanks Fist
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MoSe View Post
wow, at 1st glance, it's VERY interesting, THANKS
...
I trust studying it will step my knowledge up a lot anyway
reading it better, it's rather introductory, and 2006-based, but still useful

important: Rises are based on a fixed threshold, unrelated to number of owners

So a player owned by 3k teams, or Rooney owned by 1.5m teams, will need the same amount of NTI to get the increase
(rather primitive imho)

Whereas price losses NTO threshold is based instead on a % of their owners, thus the net amount is player-dependent
___

the main merit of the article is to link to FISO, and to their forum topic about FPL Price Changes

http://www.fiso.co.uk/forum/crack-th...s-t110979.html

that's much more detailed, and allegedly based on several years observations
they also have set up their own tool
http://www.fiso.co.uk/crackthecode.php
apparently in competition with TotalFPL one (which they call "that other site", LOL)

alas, it looks like they were accessing source data from FPL site, which tho must have moved it elsewhwere last week, so FISO tool shows all blanks for price prediction

TFPL Price Changes still seems to be working tho, maybe they're smarter, or in more amicable terms with FPL

I picked up one page of data from TFPL Rises table, to check it with FISO theory
It looks like TFPL is based on a bit simpler assumptions, especially regard subsequent increases (see Sigurdsson)
their Raise threshold looks to be around 58k NTI, with the difference that it doesn't reset for multilpe increases each GW as FISO gurus state

I'd trust that TFPL tool is less sophisticated than FISO, several changes look to be largely overdue according to them, and instead they don't occur
See for instance this morning Larsson got gthe +0.1, while Cattermole didn't despite at midnight he had a greater level than Larsson.
And TFPL Falls list has more than 50 entries above decrease target, a few since several days and some by over double the amount required....
Unfortunately we can't cross-check for it by comparing the two tools
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Old 27-08-2014, 16:27:25   #102
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FIXTURES & DEADLINES

on to another topic

knowing that outside office hourse I can only access FPL from mobile,
I wanted to check which weekend would coincide with my potential leaves or holidays (*)

so I came up with this table, and as I was at it, I also charted how many matches were scheduled for different kickoff times in a day

Code:
GW   Deadline   Sat   Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri
Code:
 1  Sat 16 Aug 1.5.1  1.1    1
 2  Sat 23 Aug 1.4.1  2.1    1
 3  Sat 30 Aug 1.5.1  2.1

 4  Sat 13 Sep 1.6.1   1     1
 5  Sat 20 Sep 1.5.1  1.2
 6  Sat 27 Sep 1.6.1   1     1
 7  Sat  4 Oct   6.1 1.1.1

 8  Sat 18 Oct 1.6    1.1    1
 9  Sat 25 Oct 1.5.1  1.1    1
10  Sat  1 Nov 1.6    1.1    1
11  Sat  8 Nov 1.5.1  2.1

12  Sat 22 Nov   6.1  1.1    1
13  Sat 29 Nov 1.6.1  1.1        GW14
 14*Tue  2 Dec                    4.2    4
15  Sat  6 Dec  10
16  Sat 13 Dec   9     1
17  Sat 20 Dec  10                                 GW18
 18 Fri 26 Dec                                       10
19  Sun 28 Dec        10                      GW20
 20 Thu  1 Jan                                 10

21  Sat 10 Jan  10
22  Sat 17 Jan  10

23  Sat 31 Jan  10
24  Sat  7 Feb  10               GW25
 25*Tue 10 Feb                    5.3    2

26  Sat 21 Feb  10
27  Sat 28 Feb  10               GW28
 28*Tue  3 Mar                    5.1    4

29  Sat 14 Mar  10
30  Sat 21 Mar  10

31  Sat  4 Apr  10
32  Sat 11 Apr  10
33  Sat 18 Apr  10
34  Sat 25 Apr  10
35  Sat  2 May  10
36  Sat  9 May  10
37  Sat 16 May  10
38  Sun 24 May        10
Code:
GW   Deadline   Sat   Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri
all deadlines at 11:30 except * at 19:30
___

I'm not used in Serie A to Xmas holidays football, here I see ther'll be 3 GW in 6 days from boxing day to newyear, it will be madness, especially managing eventual transfers between GW 18 & 19

I also notice that from december on most GWs report all 10 matches starting at the same times in a single matchday, I wonder if that's just because they haven't actually arranged all fixtures yet

I also think to understand, having read in the FAQ & Rules about teams playing twice in the same gameweek (or no match at all), that apart weather conditions, fixtures can be unpredictably rescheduled depending on which teams will advance to further FA or League Cup rounds, and whether cup matches will have to be replayed
___

(*)
go figure that I had to place 2 days my company will force me to take in October either on a Fri or Mon
(long story, alas could not find a page in english http://it.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contrat...lidariet%C3%A0)
and I decided to pick Fri 10 and Mon 13, when there's no FPL in the weekend!
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Old 28-08-2014, 07:30:18   #103
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NEW SIGNINGS

Eto'o joined Everton
..and Naismith price just went up TWICE this week!
I wonder how much playing time will the old guy actually get... they haven't hired him to read fairy tales to kids in the evening, for sure

Balo joined Liverpool, bye-bye Lambert points. I was actually a bit upset he got 3p from an "OG-assist" just right AFTER i had transferred him out, but in the long-period I trust it was the right move to do

Angel Di Maria ([Holy] Mary's Angel, isn't that a cute name? ) joined ManU, who'll have to leave him room on the pitch?

this is what happened at ManU in first two GW
Code:
Player    MUN POS owned price GW1 GW2 OP   MIN

De Gea	  MUN GKP 16.5%	£ 5.5   1   2  3   180

Jones	  MUN DEF  7.6%	£ 5.5   4   2  6   180
Blackett  MUN DEF  0.8%	£ 4.5   -   2  2   180
Smalling  MUN DEF  1.6%	£ 5.4   1   1  2   133
Keane	  MUN DEF  0.1%	£ 4.5   -   1  1    47

Mata	  MUN MID 19.4%	£ 8.9   2  10 12   180
Young	  MUN MID  5.1%	£ 5.3   1   1  2   180
Fletcher  MUN MID  1.0%	£ 5.0   2   2  4   152
Januzaj	  MUN MID  2.9%	£ 6.5   2   1  3    95
Valencia  MUN MID  0.6%	£ 5.9   -   7  7    90
Cleverley MUN MID  0.1%	£ 5.4   -   1  1    90
Herrera	  MUN MID  5.6%	£ 7.4   2   -  2    66
Nani	  MUN MID  1.0%	£ 7.0   1   -  1    45 joined SCP
Fellaini  MUN MID  0.3%	£ 6.4   1   -  1    24
Lingard	  MUN MID  0.2%	£ 4.5   1   -  1    23

Rooney	  MUN FWD 45.8%	£10.5   7   2  9   180
RVP	  MUN FWD  2.7%	£12.5   -   2  2    62
Hernández MUN FWD  0.9%	£ 5.9   1   -  1    45
Welbeck	  MUN FWD  1.3%	£ 6.9   -   1  1    28
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Old 28-08-2014, 07:51:07   #104
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MoSe View Post
..and Naismith price just went up TWICE this week!
taking from http://www.fiso.co.uk/crackthecode.php
(they lost direct access to transfers data, but at least they keep track of all Changes since the beginning, which TFPL doesn't)

THIS WEEK
(that is, since saturday night, after GW2 deadline expired)

Code:
Sun 24
8.0 to 7.9 Stevan Jovetic
6.2 to 6.3 Gylfi Sigurdsson
9.0 to 9.1 Aaron Ramsey
5.0 to 5.1 Steven Naismith
5.0 to 5.1 Ki Sung-Yueng
5.0 to 5.1 Nathaniel Clyne
4.0 to 4.1 Alan Hutton

Mon 25
5.1 to 5.2 Eric Dier
7.0 to 7.1 Branislav Ivanovic

Tue 26
9.1 to 9.2 Francesc Fábregas

Wed 27
7.9 to 8.0 Stevan Jovetic
5.5 to 5.6 Sebastian Larsson

Thu 28 (today)
6.3 to 6.4 Gylfi Sigurdsson
8.0 to 8.1 Stevan Jovetic
5.1 to 5.2 Steven Naismith
4.5 to 4.6 Lee Cattermole
in bold those who got two in this same week
underlined those who increased more than 0.1 from base price


note how Jovetic "rebounded" (or you'd better say "bounced"?) from a previous price fall, always this same GW!
it's true that City played monday night, so sunday morning Fall was still due to his GW1 performance
then he got "bam-bam" two Rises in consecutive days after he braced v LIV
a quick profit for those who bought him on tuesday
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Old 28-08-2014, 09:11:06   #105
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MoSe View Post
I also notice that from december on most GWs report all 10 matches starting at the same times in a single matchday, I wonder if that's just because they haven't actually arranged all fixtures yet
Yes, the TV companies haven't decided which matches to screen for those yet.
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Old 28-08-2014, 17:50:57   #106
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FIST!

Sunderland signed Ricky Alvarez on loan + option
You can pick an Inter player in FPL !!!
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Old 28-08-2014, 18:27:09   #107
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Does he start tho?
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Old 28-08-2014, 19:41:44   #108
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dunno, read the news on TFPL linkin to this

http://hereisthecity.com/en-gb/2014/...-loan-report/?
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Old 29-08-2014, 06:27:12   #109
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MoSe View Post
I already used my FT yesterday, but couldn't help to spend 4p for another one now
damn fluctuating prices and TFPL
Quote:
Originally Posted by MoSe View Post
important: Rises are based on a fixed threshold, unrelated to number of owners
[FISO] also have set up their own tool
http://www.fiso.co.uk/crackthecode.php
apparently in competition with TotalFPL one (which they call "that other site", LOL)
alas, it looks like they were accessing source data from FPL site, which tho must have moved it elsewhwere last week, so FISO tool shows all blanks for price prediction

I'd trust that TFPL tool is less sophisticated than FISO, several changes look to be largely overdue according to them, and instead they don't occur
... TFPL Falls list has more than 50 entries above decrease target, a few since several days and some by over double the amount required....

Unfortunately we can't cross-check for it by comparing the two tools
FISO Price tool is working again

I'll try to paste screenshots rather than copypasting table data, albeit this will need a post each
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Old 29-08-2014, 06:30:03   #110
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FPL Statistics - Transfers IN (ROUND)

http://fantasy.premierleague.com/sta...sfers_in_event
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Old 29-08-2014, 06:32:40   #111
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TotalFPL Price Changes

http://totalfpl.com/pricechanges

sorted by "Todays NTI"
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Old 29-08-2014, 06:37:27   #112
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FISO "Crack The Code"

http://www.fiso.co.uk/crackthecode.php

Sorted by "NTI Today"
it says updated yesterday (by 12:00 I assume they mean "noon"?)
it doesen't report indeed the Rise Chadli had this morning
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Old 29-08-2014, 07:58:31   #113
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first of all you can see (I hope it's not too small, you can zoom ),
the two tools report the NET tranfsers (IN-OUT)
while the FPL site has a page for the INs and a different page for the OUTs (which I didn't paste)
FPL GW OUTs are now roughly 16k for Naismith, 13k for Jovetic, 8k for Dier

so what TFPL call "todays" are actually "Round"
whereas FISO look to report the real "daily" amount
how that's important I actually can't really say, 'twould be nice to have both

Talking about Rise Threshold (I'll revert to tables now)

TFPL, sorted by "Progress", that is target Threshold, 100% means you reached enough NTI to rise
Code:
Team   	    Player	   Sel.By   Status  Pos  £    GW NTI  Progress Up/down Change
Ast.Villa Guzan, Bradley   272,826  healthy GKR  4.5   54,319 149.30%  Rising  92.40%
Man City  Clichy, Gael     207,099  healthy DEF  5.5   40,838 146.60%  Rising  69.40%
Tottenham Lloris, Hugo     311,729  healthy GKR  5.5   27,267 117.60%  Rising  46.40%
Man Utd   Di María, Ángel   72,882  healthy MID  9.5   67,173 114.20%  Rising 114.20%
Tottenham Adebayor, Emman  170,082  healthy FWD  8.5   62,674 110.90%  Rising 106.60%
Man City  Silva, David     390,190  healthy MID  9     23,185 109.20%  Rising  39.40%
Man City  Agüero, Sergio   217,771  healthy FWD 12     47,582 105.60%  Rising  80.90%
West Brom Wisdom, Andre    292,993  healthy DEF  4     50,899 104.90%  Rising  86.50%
Arsenal   Ramsey, Aaron  1,408,350  healthy MID  9.1  119,099 101.30%  Rising 101.30%
Newcastle Dummett, Paul    242,369  healthy DEF  4     44,859  99.00%  Rising  76.30%
Note that New signings, like Di Maria, are "protected" for the 1st GW or so (it's like "pre-season" picks for hims)
I wonder tho how according to FPL itself, he can have
IN (round) 69,954
OUT (round) 2,328
and MORE owners according to TFPL than the IN transfers FPL declares...


here's instead yesterday's FISO
Code:
Status	Name	        Position   Team	       Price Ownership NTI Today  Target %
	Bradley Guzan	Goalkeeper Aston Villa  4.5    265,028   2,858	  132.6
	Gael Clichy	Defender   Man City     5.5    199,102   2,978	  129.7
Yellow	Diego Costa	Forward	   Chelsea     10.6  1,324,770 -16,514	  121.7
Yellow	Ron Vlaar	Defender   Aston Villa  4.6    843,743  -1,990	  119
	Raheem Sterling	Midfielder Liverpool    8.6  1,170,957     734	  112.7
	Nacer Chadli	Midfielder Spurs        6       79,445   3,762	  109.9
	Saido Berahino	Forward	   West Brom    5.6    219,752   2,232	  108.1
	Hugo Lloris	Goalkeeper Spurs        5.5    307,089   1,337	  107.8
	David Silva	Midfielder Man City     9      385,249   1,289	   98.4
	Andre Wisdom	Defender   West Brom    4      285,781   2,638	   90.2
	Aaron Ramsey	Midfielder Arsenal      9.1  1,391,479   5,723	   86.5
	Paul Dummett	Defender   Newcastle    4      236,051   2,184	   85.3
	Emman Adebayor	Forward	   Spurs        8.5    155,342   6,670	   83.9
	Danny Rose	Defender   Spurs        5       97,790   3,119	   81
	Sergio Agüero	Forward	   Man City    12      202,650   4,897	   79.6
	Allan McGregor	Goalkeeper Hull         5      112,409   1,316	   78.1
	Ángel Di María	Midfielder Man Utd      9.5     48,969  11,265	   73.9
considering TFPL has 20 more hours transfers in their figures,
with Guzan and Clichy they almost agree

FISO reports then 4 players that according to TFPL are further down (I'll scoop'em up)

Diego FISO 121.7 TFPL 15.4 (true there have been yesterday news about his training injury scare, but that's far from enough)

Vlaar FISO 119 TFPL 58.4
Sterling FISO 112.7 TFPL 60.7
Berahino FISO 108.1 TFPL 60.9

it must be because they reset thresholds for successive Raises in a different way
except Diego, you see indeed that TFPL "progress" towards the target are approx half than FISO ones
this means TFPL targets are still doubled (those players already had one Raise), while FISO has reset the targets to level one, as the raise occurred in previous GW

Chadli is the ONLY ONE who actuallty got his Raise this morning, so it's correct he restarted from 0.8% by TFPL for his next one, while FISO table is pre-raise

IN SUMMARY
both where they agree, and where not, the two tools were rather OFF "target"...
I can see no particular event (injuries or real life transfers) which could have prevented Guzan and Clichy from getting the Raise

their figures are tho more or less aligned with FPL Stats
I frankly can't say at this point whether the failed Raise it's because the two tools are "wrong" or "unreliable",
or because there are some more factors unaccounted for even by FISO self-appointed "gurus"
or rather FPL arbitrarily witholds or delays some Raises, to "add more pepper in the soup"
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Old 29-08-2014, 08:24:37   #114
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at people transferring in and out Di Maria (I guess it's people who have played wildcard and are experimenting with lots of different setups for free)
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Old 29-08-2014, 08:40:34   #115
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all this discussion might seem inane or nitpicking for you FPL veterans
I hope it's not offputting for the "other 6" League Managers
as I said, pleas allow me as a newbie "a few" GWs learning curve to get the hold of how it works and what's behind it
then I'll reduce my comments to the "strict necessary", in line with previous FPL threads style
___

this all is tho relevant about what I posted earlier
Quote:
Originally Posted by MoSe View Post
I already used my FT yesterday, but couldn't help to spend 4p for another one now
damn fluctuating prices and TFPL
I made my GW 2nd transfer Tuesday, as I had seen SOU Steven Davis over -100%, that's the Price Fall trigger, since monday
now he's at -156% (FISO even had him at -190% yesterday), but that's 4 days the tool predicts his Price should Fall, and it doesn't


true, he was my worst MID
GW1 1p, bc of -1 for YC
GW1 1p, he got subbed at HT thus didn't even get the +1 for MID CS
so I already considered him "transfer fodder" material
that is one I could sacrifice, had I the need to recover £0.5 to be better employed elsewhere to upgrade another position
or actually to be replaced by a better MID as I have some available £ in the bank from previous transfers

but hadn't I "feared" he'd also "dent" my budget, I'd probably have saved the -4p transfer cost and kept him till necessity (or a favorable circumstance) arose

what do I use to say? I'm SURE I'll regret it....
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Old 29-08-2014, 09:19:23   #116
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'scuse me if I get back on the issue

can you explain me WHY Williamson does not appear to be suspended, despite he got a red card last match?

afaik, a red card should always lead to a suspension
doesn't it?
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Old 29-08-2014, 09:29:41   #117
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on another note, according to TFPL Predicted Lineups,
this time Kolarov and Koscielny are to play
so I shouldn't fear a 0p defender remaining on the pitch, despite I kept suspended Chester in my squad (as bencher #3 oc)
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Old 29-08-2014, 11:52:16   #118
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Red card always triggers a suspension but it's not always for the next league match. Williamson was suspended for their cup match midweek.
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Old 29-08-2014, 14:03:19   #119
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I thought Cup and BPL were two separate "accounts"

...lucky you!

otoh does this mean that if a player got a red card in the League Cup, he could have been suspended for a BPL match?
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Old 29-08-2014, 14:09:09   #120
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Yes.
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Old 29-08-2014, 17:07:12   #121
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Cambiasso joined Leicester, another Inter piece in BPL (hey, they snatched Osvaldo away...)
___

Van Gaal: Rojo still needs work permit
Quote:
Louis van Gaal does not believe Marcos Rojo will obtain a work permit ahead of Saturday’s trip to Burnley, though the Manchester United manager says it is only a matter of time until the process is complete.

...van Gaal vented his frustration: “I cannot change the law of Argentina.
I am Manchester United manager, which is the biggest club in the world, but I cannot change the law"


Quote:
Notably, the difference between Rojo and his compatriot Angel Di Maria is the latter has an Italian passport thanks to his grandparents.
wow, I didn't know that
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Old 29-08-2014, 17:26:31   #122
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at the risk of giving some hint away, but after all you vets will have been wathcing it long before I post this, I'd ask about Liverpool:

with Balotelli signing we were already wondering who'll have to leave him room at the front
now Lallana is fit to be selected, although lacking game time, maybe not fit to start
Having his price dropped by 0.1 to $8.4, he'd be one to watch ...or maybe not?
I had him in my watchlist (I had actullaly selected him in my first draft) because of his positive stats last season (I hadn't learned yet that he played in Southampton tho )
this GW according to FPL Stats he had 229 INs and 2,433 OUTs
didn't the effect of his comback begin to show yet, or 99% of FPL managers just do not regard him as a worthy objective?
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Old 30-08-2014, 21:24:05   #123
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GW3 - 3 sunday games to go

Code:
Top6fin 55  >3 to play (Naismith 9p on B#2)

Schubbe 42* >4 
Stairwl 41  >4
Glum Fb 40  >4

Monkeys 26  >2
Balls   22  >6 +B#2

Belmont 18* >6
Trollsl 18* >4 +C
4-1-6   17  >5 +C
* with 1sub

for me GW1 38p, GW2 41p, this will rasily be my low
and other teams haveore players yet to play, so I might be league GW3 worst too
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Old 31-08-2014, 09:38:07   #124
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for my records, as TFPL only keeps track of recent entries, and FISO has dates wrong & it's atm unreliable
Code:
Sun 24
8.0 to 7.9 Stevan Jovetic
6.2 to 6.3 Gylfi Sigurdsson
9.0 to 9.1 Aaron Ramsey
5.0 to 5.1 Steven Naismith
5.0 to 5.1 Ki Sung-Yueng
5.0 to 5.1 Nathaniel Clyne
4.0 to 4.1 Alan Hutton
Mon 25
5.1 to 5.2 Eric Dier
7.0 to 7.1 Branislav Ivanovic
Tue 26
9.1 to 9.2 Francesc Fábregas
Wed 27
7.9 to 8.0 Stevan Jovetic
5.5 to 5.6 Sebastian Larsson
Thu 28
6.3 to 6.4 Gylfi Sigurdsson
8.0 to 8.1 Stevan Jovetic
5.1 to 5.2 Steven Naismith
4.5 to 4.6 Lee Cattermole
Fri 29
6.0 to 6.1 Chadli
Sat  30
+0.1 Jovetic Clichy Adebayor
Sun 31
+0.1 Naismith Aguero
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Old 31-08-2014, 15:51:24   #125
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GW3 - LEI v ARS to go
Code:
Top6fin 56  >2 Debuchy Ramsey (Naismith 9p on B#2)
Schubbe 54*

Stairwl 45   >2 Debuchy Ramsey 
Glum Fb 43   >2 Debuchy Sanchez

Monkeys 34^ >1 Koscielny
Balls   34*^  >2 Debuchy Szczesny no bench 
Belmont 32*  >1 Ramsey 
Trollsl 32*^>1 Ramsey

4-1-6   20  >2+C   Szczesny, C Ramsey
* with 1sub
^ Bonuses as estimated by TFPL
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Old 31-08-2014, 16:13:18   #126
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15 points plus bonuses on the bench. Annoying.
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Old 01-09-2014, 08:43:35   #127
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Transfer window ending, and 2 weeks until next gameweek means it can be a great time to play a wildcard, and make a lot of trades over the 2 weeks (at no points loss) to make money, and finalise a revamped team before next gameweek.
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Old 01-09-2014, 08:53:25   #128
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always for my records


GW3
Code:
Sun 24 +0.1 6.3 Sigurdsson, 9.1 Ramsey, 5.1 Naismith, Ki, Clyne, 4.1 Hutton;
       -0.1 7.9 Jovetic
Mon 25 +0.1 5.2 Dier, 7.1 Ivanovic
Tue 26 +0.1 9.2 Fábregas
Wed 27 +0.1 8.0 Jovetic, 5.6 Larsson
Thu 28 +0.1 6.4 Sigurdsson, 8.1 Jovetic, 5.2 Naismith, 4.6 Cattermole
Fri 29 +0.1 6.1 Chadli
Sat 30 +0.1 8.2 Jovetic, 5.6 Clichy, 8.6 Adebayor
GW4
Code:
Sun 31 +0.1 5.3 Naismith, 12.1 Aguero
Mon 01 +0.1 10.6 Diego Costa, 8.7 Sterling, 6.5 Sigurdsson, 5.6 Dyer, Weimann, 5.4 Dier
FISO CTC seems to be now more spot-on:
they recorded and predicted the correct rises,
only Guzan is held back by FPL for some unknown reason

TFPL instead failed to update today (*)
TFPL only was predicting right Diego Costa & Dyer
they missed: Sterling 73.6%, Weimann 72.2%, Sigurdsson 69.0%, Dier 66.9% (you see how for them these are all a good 30% away from target)
they wronlgy predicted: Wisdom 104.1%, Lloris 101.1%, Ramsey 100.5%

OK, the latter 3 were barely past the Threshold, we can allow for some error margin
for comparison, FISO CTC updated 9AM this morning gives them at:
Wisdom 93.1%, Lloris 92.7%, Ramsey 92.7%

(*) OK, they updated their site while I was posting, they give 10:23 as update time.. this means it's CET, not GMT, odd.
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Old 01-09-2014, 10:08:50   #129
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Funko View Post
Transfer window ending, and 2 weeks until next gameweek means it can be a great time to play a wildcard, and make a lot of trades over the 2 weeks (at no points loss) to make money, and finalise a revamped team before next gameweek.
Yes, I was of course considering that.
I see Walrus has indeed activated his WC now.

caveats:

- even with 2 weeks time, allowing more time for greater price swings, you still need a Double Rise to make a 0.1 profit
player who got DR in a single GW are very few, dunno whether 2 weeks will let more than 3 or 4 players get a DR
besides, *provided*you then really want to sell a player who's so much appreciated
e.g., regardless GWs , WC and transfer costs, I bought Sigurdsson at 6.1 and he's today at 6.5... should I sell him, I'd gain 0.2 as his Selling Price is 6.3 for me. Why should I tho sell a regular starter who so far also regularly scored some extra points EVERY GW? Are there around 5 MIDs really better than he is, to make me want to cash his 0.2 profit? Should I then want him back, i'd have to pay him 6.5, not 6.3, nullifying the profiti I'd make now...

- I know there have been lot of scorers this weekend, with braces too...
I have indeed for now already made TWO Tranfers this GW (I'll never learn & I'm SURE I'll regret it & Hi, I'm MoSe, I'm a Transfers Addict), but I'll have the option to activate the WC ANYTIME before next Sept 13 deadline, and it will cover all the transfers made earlier in the GW. So I can monitor whether favorable profit conditions actually arise, or decide to stop where I am for now and keep the WC for later.

- there is a similar 2 weeks window in a month, after GW7 (that's why in the beginning I was asking to join at GW8 )
3 games might be too few, current DT players form might be fleeting, we'd need to assess the effect of new big signings over a few more games time...
...and I think I'll be able to make better choices after 7 games than after 3
of course I sohuld hope for similar goalfests in GW7 too, to trigger herdlike migrations...
LIV v EVE, CHE v AVL, HUL v MCI, MUN v WHU, ARS v TOT...
OTOH the trade-off is to drag on 4 more weeks with the mediocre initial team... but with all the (costly) TR I already made so fare, there's only half of it remaining!

- I'll be leaving wed till mon (included) and I don't want to monitor price and transfers 6 days long from mobile, while I could also be busy 10 hrs per day playing hold'em
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Old 01-09-2014, 13:44:40   #130
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GW3 tables

Code:
        GW  used       Points    Points    St  worse  ideal  waste
TEAM     3   S B DNP   S  C  B   on Bench  Hi  thanB  Team    C  B

Top6fin 60  11 -  -   49 11  -   3 6,6,-   12  2 1,1   72     1 11
Glum Fb 55  11 -  -   53  2  -   2 2,1,2   11    1     65     9  1
Schubbe 54  10 1  -   50  2  2   - -,6,2   12  ° 1     69    10  5  °-1p GK must play over DNP GK despite 0 > -1
Stairwl 49  11 -  -   47  2  -   6 1,1,-   11  2       62     9  4

Monkeys 38  11 -  -   36  2  -   - 2,2,-   11    1,1   49     9  2
Balls   37   9 2  -   34  2  1   - -,-,-   12          47    10  -
Belmont 34  10 1  -   31  2  1   6 -,-,5   11  2 0     52     9  9
Trollsl 34  10 1  -   31  2  1   2 -,1,2   11   -1,1   46     9  3

4-1-6   25  11 -  -   23  2  -   2 2,1,-    7  1 -1    34     5  4
except 4-1-6, everybody else had 11p Sigurdsson and/or 12p Diego Costa
except Funko, they chose a 2p Captain instead, "wasting" 9/10p (4/9 were Rooney who couldn't score @BUR )
___

TEAM DEPTH
Code:
TEAM    gw   Pitch                       Bench
                                        (AFTER subs)
Top6fin 60  12 11  9  4 3 2 2 2  2 1 1   3  6  6  -
Glum Fb 55  11 10  9  7 4 3 2 2  2 2 1   2  2  1  2
Schubbe 54  12 11  9  7 5 2 2 2  2 1-1   -  -  6  2
Stairwl 49  11  9  6  5 4 2 2 2  2 2 2   6  1  1  -

Monkeys 38  11 11  2  2 2 2 2 1  1 1 1   -  2  2  -
Balls   37  12  7  4  2 2 2 2 2  1 1 0   -  -  -  -
Belmont 34  11  7  2  2 2 2 2 2  1 1 0   6  -  -  5
Trollsl 34  11  6  3  2 2 2 2 2  2 1-1   2  -  1  2

4-1-6   25   7  4  2  2 2 2 2 1  1 1-1   2  2  1  -
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Old 01-09-2014, 18:07:50   #131
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AUGUST tables

consolidated GW Stats
Code:
        GW   used       Points   team Ideal waste   Trsf  Ovl
TEAM    Pts  S B  DNP   S  C  B  high Team   C  B   Cost  Pts  WC

4-1-6   161  32 1  -  131 21  9   30   181   9 11     -   161  > avl
Top6fin 168  33 -  -  142 26  -   32   196   6 22   -12   156  > avl
Belmont 161  31 2  -  129 18 14   38   201  20 20   -12   149  Active
Stairwl 147  33 -  -  138  9  -   33   201  24 30   - 4   143  Active
Glum Fb 140  30 2  1  122 15  3   34   184  19 25     -   140  Played
Schubbe 138  31 2  -  127  6  5   34   174  28  8     -   138  Played
Trollsl 128  30 3  -  113 10  5   30   159  20 11     -   128  > avl
Balls   126  29 3  1  108 15  3   26   138  11  1     -   126  > avl
Monkeys 117  30 3  -  105  6  6   30   144  24  3   -12   105  > avl
it's a trial, I don't know if it makes any sense: it sums the stats from each GW so far

some explanations, by examples

used: S B DNP
Glum used in total 30 players from the 33 "Starting 11" he picked,
twice he recurred to automatic substitutions (bringing on from Bench 3p for those 2 subs),
once he picked one who Did Not Play but could not be subbed

Points S C B & team high
Belmont got only 128 of his 161p from the 31 S he actually used
18p came from the Captain bonuses (10+6+2)
14p he brought on with 2 suBs (13p by Sigurdsson in GW1, 1p by Cahill in GW3)
his 3 GW Top Players (team high) tally 38p: 13p Sterling/Sigurdsson, 14p Dier, 11p Sigurdsson.
waste: C B
He only got 18p with his Captains, so he "wasted" 38-18=20p of his Captain potential
He could have gained 20p more with the "ideal" Starters picks, whiche were instead wasted on the Bench
So, with a crystal ball to scry optimal team and Captain picks , his Ideal Score would have been 161+20+20=201p


___

maybe this will make even less sense

consolidated 3 GWs TEAM DEPTH
Code:
TEAM     GWp  Pitch (AFTER subs)             LEFT on Bench
             Top                              GK #1 #2 #3
4-1-6    161  30 23 21 13 13 13 10  6 5 5 1    9  3  6  2
Top6fin  168  32 27 21 15 11 10  9  7 6 4 0    7 16  7  -
Belmont  161  38 29 18 14 10  9  9  7 4 4 1    6  2  5 15
Stairwl  147  31 28 19 16 13  6  6  6 5 5 3    6 10 19  5
Glum Fb  140  28 22 20 17 10  7  6  6 4 4 1   10  2  9 15
Schubbe  138  34 26 20 16  9  6  6  6 5 3 1    -  -  9  6
Trollsl  128  30 24 15 12 10  6  6  6 6 3 0   10  -  1  8
Balls    126  26 20 16 10  9  9  7  6 4 4 1    -  -  2  1
Monkeys  117  30 24 13 10  9  8  6  5 3 3 0    -  2  3  3
remember these are 3 GW totals... makng the avg would be more meaningful, but all the decimals would clutter it too much

also note that for instance the 3rd column is the sum of the points by your 3 "3rd scorers" from the 3 gameweeks, which could well be different players each GW

that would be nice ot chart..... YAY!
taking myself as example, you see that my Top 2 players each GW are in average, overall, while I'm very weak with my 3rd and 4th performers
Have fun checking yours
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Old 02-09-2014, 08:16:04   #132
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GW3 Gameweek History

to end the tables orgy before I leave tomorrow (Italian Poker Tour @ Sanremo , back on Tue 09),
here is the summary of the info you can all find in the "View Gameweek history" page for each team

Code:
        Ovl  GW1   GW2       GW3       GW4    Team Value
TEAM    Pts   GP   T -C GP   T -C GP   T -C   GW2   GW3   curr  =team+bank 

4-1-6   161   67   -  - 69   1  - 25   1  -   100.1 100.4 100.7  100.1 0.6
Top6fin 156   51   3 -8 57   2 -4 60   1  -   100.4 100.7 101.2  100.9 0.3
Belmont 149   64   2 -4 63   3 -8 34   ? WC   100.5 100.9 101.4  100.2 1.2
Stairwl 143   49   -  - 49   3 -4 49   ? WC   100.3 100.7 101.4  100.9 0.5
Glum Fb 140   41   1  - 44   6 WC 55   -  -   100.1  99.9 100.0   98.9 1.1
Schubbe 138   40   -  - 44   9 WC 54   -  -    99.9 100.3 100.7  100.2 0.5
Trollsl 128   52   -  - 42   -  - 34   -  -    99.8  99.4  99.5   99.5 -
Balls   126   54   1  - 35   1  - 37   1  -   100.3 100.2 100.2   98.6 1.6
Monkeys 105   38   3 -8 41   2 -4 38   2 -4*  100.4 100.6 100.8   98.5 2.3
* unless I play the WC before GW4 deadline

of course GW4 Transfers and curr.Team Value are "so far", subject to further changes before Sat 13 deadline

I propose Walrus should change his team name to '49ers
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Old 02-09-2014, 08:23:28   #133
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Excellent stuff MoSe.
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Old 02-09-2014, 08:46:22   #134
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that's not a new table, but now that I found the "new" Counterglow can handle bigger attachments than last time I was here, let's try to add a chart to this one too

consolidated GW Stats
Code:
        GW   used       Points   team Ideal waste   Trsf  Ovl
TEAM    Pts  S B  DNP   S  C  B  high Team   C  B   Cost  Pts  WC

4-1-6   161  32 1  -  131 21  9   30   181   9 11     -   161  > avl
Top6fin 168  33 -  -  142 26  -   32   196   6 22   -12   156  > avl
Belmont 161  31 2  -  129 18 14   38   201  20 20   -12   149  Active
Stairwl 147  33 -  -  138  9  -   33   201  24 30   - 4   143  Active
Glum Fb 140  30 2  1  122 15  3   34   184  19 25     -   140  Played
Schubbe 138  31 2  -  127  6  5   34   174  28  8     -   138  Played
Trollsl 128  30 3  -  113 10  5   30   159  20 11     -   128  > avl
Balls   126  29 3  1  108 15  3   26   138  11  1     -   126  > avl
Monkeys 117  30 3  -  105  6  6   30   144  24  3   -12   105  > avl
in the chart TC are not deducted
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Old 02-09-2014, 09:23:27   #135
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Market Additions

from https://twitter.com/premierleague?or...43235730468865

Code:
DEF £ 5.0m (SOU) Alderweireld

MID £ 7.0m (SOU) Mane
MID £ 6.0m (SUN) Alvarez
MID £ 5.5m (MUN) Blind
MID £ 5.5m (CRY) McArthur
MID £ 5.0m (TOT) Stambouli
MID £ 5.0m (WHU) Amalfitano
MID £ 5.0m (WHU) Song
MID £ 5.0m (QPR) Kranjcar

FWD £11.0m (MUN) Falcao
FWD £ 7.0m (HUL) Hernandez [Abel]
FWD £ 5.0m (CRY) Doyle
with all the inside BPL transfers too,
we'll have to reasses the whole rosters from ALL teams, to understand who'll have the chance to lose or gain game time
that's why I didn't want to play the WC right now (but still could next week if I change my mind )

e.g.: at the current OUT rates, Rooney is set for a Price Drop before next deadline
I dind't swap him out yet, only bc of his run-in vQPR @LEI vWHU (albeit he failed to score @BUR)
Now that Falcao's in, who'll play in ManU frontline?
Rooney-Falcao-RVP together?... unlikely? at £10.5 Rooney is now the cheapest of this trio, lol
Is Falcao already fit after the injury which kept him out of WC?
Will his presence, take away scoring chances from Rooney?
Or will he open spaces and create more?
I saw few seasons ago in Champions league that Wayne adapted to play full-back for parts of a game if necessity arose. Without going that far, will LVG shift him a bit back in a positiom more distant from goal?
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Old 02-09-2014, 13:01:38   #136
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MoSe View Post
with all the inside BPL transfers too,
we'll have to reasses the whole rosters from ALL teams, to understand who'll
this might help too
http://www.myfootballfacts.com/Premi...mmer_2014.html
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Old 02-09-2014, 13:44:05   #137
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RVP apparently injured/needs an operation, so Rooney will play. I'm keeping him but have dropped Mata.
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Old 02-09-2014, 13:45:16   #138
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Doyle may have been a Reading Premier League Legend, but Guardian said he scored 5 times in 33 appearances in Championship and League 1, not sure why he's back.
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Old 06-09-2014, 20:42:18   #139
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Agreed. Doyle hasn't performed for ages.

Fantastic analysis Mose. Interesting breakdown of score - captain - points on bench. I've used my wildcard as of last Sunday and feel my squad is better off overall for it and some of the players i've brought in have already gone up in value and some who i transferred out have gone down so can be optimistic from now - injuries permitting for the international break.
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Old 09-09-2014, 12:11:07   #140
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Funko View Post
Transfer window ending, and 2 weeks until next gameweek means it can be a great time to play a wildcard,
and make a lot of trades over the 2 weeks (at no points loss) to make money, and finalise a revamped team before next gameweek.
Quote:
Originally Posted by MoSe View Post
- even with 2 weeks time, allowing more time for greater price swings, you still need a Double Rise to make a 0.1 profit
players who got DR in a single GW are very few, dunno whether 2 weeks will let more than 3 or 4 players get a DR [only 1 so far... the one Funko chose]
besides, *provided*you then really want to sell a player who's so much appreciated
http://www.fiso.co.uk/forum/post2576510.html#p2576510
being self-appointed "Fantasy & Interactive Sports Online FISO - the World's Leading Fantasy Sports Community", they got to the same conclusion
Quote:
...but the concept of using the wildcard during the first international break
to make money or secure the team you want immediately rather than over many weeks has effectively been quoshed.
Positioning for that first price rise is easy, but the second one that makes it possible to sell at a profit is proving elusive.
I regret using mine now knowing I could've taken my time getting certain players in as they only seem to be having a 0.1 rise rather than 0.3 or 0.4.
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Old 09-09-2014, 12:23:16   #141
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http://www.fiso.co.uk/forum/viewtopic.php?t=113029

can we have similar interesting exchange of opinions here too,
or do you keep your insights for yourself, and I'll have to register there?

or do y'all talk FPL in the Secret Forum?
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Old 09-09-2014, 12:57:27   #142
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I didn't play a wildcard to make money, I'm doing ok so far and it can give you a big boost later in the season.
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Old 09-09-2014, 12:58:57   #143
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Sturridge injury probably puts a spanner in the works for most of those people. I'd stick with Agurero if I had him, I'm sticking with Rooney and Costa for now.
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Old 10-09-2014, 06:24:32   #144
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damn, Rooney finally went down 0.1...
Hope he'll repay our trust in the upcoming favorable fixtures

otoh I have £2.3m in the bank, I hope that -0.1 won't dent my options too much
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Old 10-09-2014, 08:49:05   #145
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Code:
        Ovl  Team Value         -SELLING-
TEAM    Pts   curr  =team+bank  FEE NET V

4-1-6   161  100.6  100.0 0.6   0.5 100.1
Top6fin 156  101.2  100.9 0.3   1.0 100.2
Belmont 149  101.5  100.3 1.2   0.8 100.7
Stairwl 143  101.6  101.1 0.5   0.8 100.8
Glum Fb 140   99.9   99.3 0.6   0.6  99.3
Schubbe 138  100.6  100.1 0.5   0.7  99.9
Trollsl 128   99.4   99.4 -     0.2  99.2
Balls   126  100.2   98.6 1.6   0.5  99.7
Monkeys 105  100.7   98.4 2.3   0.8  99.9
about the Sell-on Fee, making you need a +0.2 rise to make a +0.1 profit
I wanted to track the actual overall value (team+bank) I'd have available to spend should I sell all my players to buy a totally new team

Of course I can't see other team transfers made after aug 30th

taking table leader as example:

4-1-6
+0.3 Net +0.1 Fabregas
+0.2 Net +0.1 Ivanovic
+0.1 Net 0 Ramsey, Adebayor
-0.1 Anichebe
1 yet undisclosed Transfer this GW
TV 100.6 NET 100.1

Top 6
+0.5 Net +0.2 Sigurdsson
+0.3 Net +0.1 Fabregas, Naismith (rise +0.4 but bought after +0.1)
+0.2 Net +0.1 Dier (rise +0.4 but bought after +0.2)
+0.1 Net 0 Ramsey, Diego Costa, Chester (sold)
-0.1 Mata, Rooney, Sanogo (sold)
TV 101.2 NET 100.2

hhmmm... maybe I sohud focus more on the (potential) Fees.... it's easier
what you gained or lost it's already tallied in the TV

Belmont
Fee 0.3 Sigurdsson
Fee 0.2 Dier
Fee 0.1 Vlaar, Ramsey, Sterling
Fee 0 Schuerrle (bought after the raise, so no gain but 7.6 is the value you get)

Stairwell
Fee 0.3 Sigurdsson
Fee 0.2 Fabregas
Fee 0.1 Adebayor, Hutton, Ramsey

Glum
Fee 0.3 Sigurdsson
Fee 0.1 Vlaar, Jovetic, Dier

Schubbekutteveen
Fee 0.2 Sigurdsson, Dier
Fee 0.1 Hutton, Chadli, Sterling

Trollslottet
Fee 0.1 Ramsey, Agüero

Balls
Fee 0.3
Fee 0.2 Fabregas
Fee 0.1 Jovetic, Vlaar, Diego Costa

R.Monkeys
Fee 0.2 Sigurdsson
Fee 0.1 Koscielny, Chester, Dyer, Cattermole, Larsson, Diego Costa
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Old 12-09-2014, 08:14:27   #146
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2 weeks, a long wait
can't wait for play to resume tomorrow!
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Old 12-09-2014, 10:17:42   #147
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Re: Lambert

http://www.fiso.co.uk/forum/r-lambert-t113131.html

So I sold him at 7.5

Now that he's down at 7.2, and Sturridge injured for weeks, and Balo "unhinged" as his usual self, should I really consider bringing him back?
lol
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Old 12-09-2014, 11:41:21   #148
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LineUp doubt

so, in midfield I have:

SWA Sigurdsson, Dyer - playing CHE (A)
SUN Cattermole, Larsson - playing TOT (H)

will the home/Away factor outweigh the opponent strength?
Not that Spurs are *much* weaker than Chelsea too...

the SWA duo are also better scoring so far, will they be smothered at Stamford?
for now, I'll leave the redstriped duo on the bench anyway
we'll see
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ALL TWATS IN THE DARK ARE GAY
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Last edited by MoSe; 12-09-2014 at 12:21:44. Reason: mixed up SWA with WBA :-o
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Old 14-09-2014, 10:55:20   #149
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This was the week to have Costa. I sensibly brought him in for Rooney when Costa's valued dropped back to 10.5 and now he's 10.7. Had him as captain yesterday even though he was injury doubt, but wasn't far away from changing my captain to Sterling. Lucky i didn't!
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Old 14-09-2014, 17:11:56   #150
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Best to have Rooney AND Costa
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