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Old 22-10-2008, 15:26:44   #351
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50% is ridiculous. Don't be silly.

That would require house price drops of > 60 (70?) %
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Old 22-10-2008, 15:32:32   #352
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This is how fraudulent bankproducts can exist. You let some "smartje" folk talk long enough and finally you give up and say 'whatever'
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Old 22-10-2008, 19:06:04   #353
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Quote:
Originally posted by KrazyHorse
50% is ridiculous. Don't be silly.

That would require house price drops of > 60 (70?) %
What is silly about that?

Let's say... a recent vintage, with the usual appraisal fraud, 100 % LTV.

10 % Cost of foreclosure (maintainance, repairs, fees, lost interest)

10 % absorbed by inferior tranches.

Takes a 50 % drop.

How about 35 % so far with rising unemployment and tightening credit? Really want to bet against 50 % or 60 % drops when this is done?

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_pMscxxELHE...ceDeclines.jpg

Or how about areas where prices have tripled or quadrupled in 10 years?

http://bp2.blogger.com/_pMscxxELHEg/...eApril2008.jpg
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Old 22-10-2008, 20:35:03   #354
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Even assuming we see 10% cost of foreclosure (if they're willing to take that hit they can easily just short sale the fucker), and it takes a 50% drop...now we're down to 45% of original value. "AAA" tranches were deleveraged by more than 10%. Most of them by at least 20 (from what I've heard). So now "AAA" is 45/80 = 56.25% of original value.

And your 35% is in the single worst-performing market in the US. These bad boys were national. At a guess, you're at 20% off peak value as a weighted average.

At 20% deleveraging that AAA is just in the loss range now.
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Old 22-10-2008, 20:35:54   #355
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By the way, this is also assuming that all the loans in the package are at 100% LT(peak)V

Come on, now. Get real....
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Old 23-10-2008, 10:31:27   #356
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""AAA" tranches were deleveraged by more than 10%. Most of them by at least 20 (from what I've heard). So now "AAA" is 45/80 = 56.25% of original value."

Deleveraged? You mean the cushion by the lower tranches? I'm not sure about the 20 %.

"These bad boys were national."

Depends on who packaged them for whom. That's why I qualified the scenario with "in a former very bubbly market". I doubt that everything was packaged on a national basis, or?

"this is also assuming that all the loans in the package are at 100% LT(peak)V"

Recent vintage and helocs.

Another thing is loan quality. I could make a case for worse losses on a subprime based security.

So far you may be right on averages, but I would not count on excluding wide variations within the composition of those securities and tranches.

If it were so simple and unproblematic as you say, why is there no private investor bidding close to par or just 90 % or 80% on a reasonably diversified mix of those tranches?
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Old 23-10-2008, 12:43:37   #357
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Why wouldn't you package on a national basis? I thought that was the major innovation that allowed the risk on these guys to be so underpriced...

What do you men, loan quality? In making these loss estimates you've already assumed that everybody engages in jingle mail...
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Old 23-10-2008, 13:09:35   #358
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1. As long as it was easy to get a AAA and people just bought AAA, why not package riskier loans? Why include flyover country when you can package Miami, Las Vegas and California? Did the rating agencies care?

Also, wasn't national packaging done already through the GSEs?

2. Should have been the development of LTV, look at LA chart above.
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Old 23-10-2008, 13:23:12   #359
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Did the rating agencies care?
As far as I know, yes. The key is that there was supposed to be minimal correlation between defult rates in different markets (and incidientally housing price fluctuations). The ratings agencies (as far as I know) did some reading of the models and had to approve them, and it makes a big difference if you have 3 sets of uncorrelated assets compared to 10+ sets. It's better to have fewer loans in more markets than more loans in less markets in order to reduce putative risk.
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Old 23-10-2008, 13:24:51   #360
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Not letting the ratings agencies off the hook, but they had to have something in order to cover their asses in giving AAA...
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Old 23-10-2008, 13:44:05   #361
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Again I wouldn't bet on that. Admittedly anecdotal, but what do you make of this?

http://bigpicture.typepad.com/commen...s-not-our.html

Also, the excuses here don't mention "oops, busts were suddenly correlated":

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=ac8Bkp_7F4Rc
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Old 23-10-2008, 13:48:53   #362
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Those articles are hardly specific...not that I'm blaming you, since it's hard getting news articles which are both informed and explicit on this subject.
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Old 23-10-2008, 13:51:21   #363
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True, but it is difficult to assume anything about the ratings agencies now - even that they had a minimum line of deniability.
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Old 24-10-2008, 16:23:25   #364
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Nice summary of the sad state of economics:

http://www.prospect.org/csnc/blogs/b...st_losers_post
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Old 27-10-2008, 05:11:01   #365
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Going to be a few good, long prison sentences I would imagine.

Meanwhile, the good stuff is just beginning. EU states are approaching the IMF.
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Old 27-10-2008, 12:03:25   #366
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Going to be a few good, long prison sentences I would imagine.
I don't doubt that some people did some illegal shit, but as far as I can tell the crisis was caused by entirely legal transactions.
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Old 27-10-2008, 12:14:58   #367
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Well, my profession seems to get some good business, still...

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...eN8&refer=home
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Old 27-10-2008, 23:16:01   #368
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I don't even like calling it a "crisis". Just call it "some people fucked up and should take a haircut".
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Old 28-10-2008, 16:27:17   #369
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US consumer confidence down to record low.


http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a08qtJ.tt8ng&refer=home
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Old 29-10-2008, 02:15:09   #370
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Originally posted by KrazyHorse
I don't doubt that some people did some illegal shit, but as far as I can tell the crisis was caused by entirely legal transactions.
I'm thinking there will be a mood for blood, and there will be more than enough stench of fish to fuel it. Add in US prosecutors being somewhat political animals and...
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Old 29-10-2008, 02:24:09   #371
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Originally posted by Dyl Ulenspiegel
US consumer confidence down to record low.


http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a08qtJ.tt8ng&refer=home
While possibly an apt metaphor, did you mean to link to arm stuck down toilet?

Edit: Having read other threads, nevermind.
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Old 29-10-2008, 03:03:24   #372
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Originally posted by notyoueither
I'm thinking there will be a mood for blood, and there will be more than enough stench of fish to fuel it. Add in US prosecutors being somewhat political animals and...
Show me that wonderful country where prosecutors are completely apolitical.
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Old 29-10-2008, 04:14:47   #373
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You don't seriously want to turn this into a discussion of the merits and demerits of the American system, do you?
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Old 29-10-2008, 05:59:36   #374
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Going to be a few good, long prison sentences I would imagine.

Meanwhile, the good stuff is just beginning. EU states are approaching the IMF.
I've heard that the IMF likely won't have enough cash to deal with all the requests so they're going to have to save some and let others sink or swim on their own.
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Old 29-10-2008, 09:32:24   #375
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Originally posted by Dyl Ulenspiegel
US consumer confidence down to record low.


http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a08qtJ.tt8ng&refer=home

I think that the bailouts and evident LACK of economic insight from a shrewd micro point of view by both Paulson and Bernanke (or perhaps le deluge apres moi from Bush) or perhaps idiocy AND mendacity from Paulson thinking his friends and industry need to be saved...that we all rely on them....all that junk is doing damage. RATIONAL markets are pricing in the danger of goverment actions. And rational consumers also.

We were much better off with the Alcoa CEO treas sec who refused to bail out Enron when Rubin called him, than with this Goldman prick. Things went on without a blip. Same deal with LTCM. Let things unwind.
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Old 29-10-2008, 09:41:49   #376
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RATIONAL markets are pricing in the danger of goverment actions - like Volkswagen stocks!
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Old 29-10-2008, 12:48:33   #377
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Quote:
Originally posted by notyoueither
I'm thinking there will be a mood for blood, and there will be more than enough stench of fish to fuel it. Add in US prosecutors being somewhat political animals and...
As I said, there are plenty of small fish to hit with indictments. On the other hand, The big fish seem pretty clean.
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Old 29-10-2008, 12:50:56   #378
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Originally posted by TCO
I think that the bailouts and evident LACK of economic insight from a shrewd micro point of view by both Paulson and Bernanke (or perhaps le deluge apres moi from Bush) or perhaps idiocy AND mendacity from Paulson thinking his friends and industry need to be saved...that we all rely on them....all that junk is doing damage. RATIONAL markets are pricing in the danger of goverment actions. And rational consumers also.

We were much better off with the Alcoa CEO treas sec who refused to bail out Enron when Rubin called him, than with this Goldman prick. Things went on without a blip. Same deal with LTCM. Let things unwind.
This is not a SINGLE defaulting party. This is slow motion cascade default.

There's real evidence to suggest that banks as bridges between lenders and borrowers cannot be quickly rebuilt. Or do you think that huge reductions in the money supply are a good idea?
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Old 29-10-2008, 16:24:09   #379
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I think in TCO's world if you can't get credit it just proves your idea sucks and you just need to save the cash to fund things yourself.
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Old 29-10-2008, 17:03:51   #380
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There won't be much happening on the legal side. We'll see just enough token prosecutions to keep the peasants quiet. Might just take a few more this time then with .com bust.

When we talk about "legal" though, we could start with Greenspan's bailout machine and the Fed mandate....
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Old 29-10-2008, 17:04:25   #381
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I think in TCO's world if you can't get credit it just proves your idea sucks and you just need to save the cash to fund things yourself.
1. no, but 2. is just that way.
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Old 29-10-2008, 22:06:34   #382
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Originally posted by KrazyHorse
This is not a SINGLE defaulting party. This is slow motion cascade default.

There's real evidence to suggest that banks as bridges between lenders and borrowers cannot be quickly rebuilt. Or do you think that huge reductions in the money supply are a good idea?

A small indicative part of the problem is the use of the word "banks". Do we mean local banks? Traditional banks? The trading desks of investment banks? Etc.
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Old 29-10-2008, 22:10:35   #383
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I think in TCO's world if you can't get credit it just proves your idea sucks and you just need to save the cash to fund things yourself.
When we say "you can't get credit", do we mean everyone can't get credit? Risky people that shouldn't have been getting credit (like financiers at risky trading desks) can't get it any more? Do we mean regular businesses have to pay a higher rate for paper? If so, how much higher? How does it compare versus historic, etc?
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Old 29-10-2008, 22:12:44   #384
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A small indicative part of the problem is the use of the word "banks". Do we mean local banks? Traditional banks? The trading desks of investment banks? Etc.
Use of the FDIC to bail out Paulson buddies? Reclassification of investment banks as commercial so that they can belly up to the trough?
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Old 29-10-2008, 22:13:45   #385
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BTW, I'm still getting credit card applications like clockwork from all my frequent flier programs, AAA, universities, etc, etc.
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Old 29-10-2008, 22:17:06   #386
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Originally posted by KrazyHorse
This is not a SINGLE defaulting party. This is slow motion cascade default.

There's real evidence to suggest that banks as bridges between lenders and borrowers cannot be quickly rebuilt. Or do you think that huge reductions in the money supply are a good idea?
I'm very UNWORRIED about a financial sector existing. We can shrink the silliness and still have plenty of intermediaries. Things should be easier with computers and the net and globalization and crap. Mass unemployment in the finanical sector would be a very good reallocation of capital. Fuck em.

No one has jumped out of a window yet. We need that. literally. Paulson can do the first sidewalk dive. I want him to
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Old 29-10-2008, 22:32:38   #387
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BTW, I'm still getting credit card applications like clockwork from all my frequent flier programs, AAA, universities, etc, etc.
Same

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Old 30-10-2008, 00:31:39   #388
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Originally posted by TCO
When we say "you can't get credit", do we mean everyone can't get credit? Risky people that shouldn't have been getting credit (like financiers at risky trading desks) can't get it any more? Do we mean regular businesses have to pay a higher rate for paper? If so, how much higher? How does it compare versus historic, etc?
The fact you can't define "who" is the issue.
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Old 30-10-2008, 01:05:40   #389
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Old 30-10-2008, 02:38:10   #390
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So invest in lawyers? =)

(And probably guns?)
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Old 30-10-2008, 02:44:23   #391
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I'm very UNWORRIED about a financial sector existing.
I missed that before. Your trolling is weak.
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Old 30-10-2008, 03:54:31   #392
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As I said, there are plenty of small fish to hit with indictments. On the other hand, The big fish seem pretty clean.
The ratings agency logs have an oily quality to them. Some energetic inquiry could well yield big game.

The deeper the crisis goes, the more likely some rocks get turned over that some former high rollers would really prefer get left alone.
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Old 30-10-2008, 05:08:28   #393
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So invest in lawyers? =)

(And probably guns?)
"Bring lawyers, guns, and money..."
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Old 30-10-2008, 09:04:33   #394
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I missed that before. Your trolling is weak.
We have a failure to communicate.
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Old 30-10-2008, 09:08:46   #395
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The fact you can't define "who" is the issue.
There have been some good op-eds on the vague quality of assertions coming from the Fed and Treasury. All these discussions lack the definiteness to allow movement forward. I'm all about pinning stuff down.
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Old 30-10-2008, 09:17:27   #396
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The fact you can't define "who" is the issue.
You mean who is creditworthy?
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Old 30-10-2008, 11:43:53   #397
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A small indicative part of the problem is the use of the word "banks". Do we mean local banks? Traditional banks? The trading desks of investment banks? Etc.
I mean all institutions which borrow short and lend long.
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Old 30-10-2008, 12:24:45   #398
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We have a failure to communicate.
Probably. At first I thought you were saying you didn't care whether we had a financial sector.

Dyl, yes, or to put it another way, what is "creditworthy".

TCO, I thought part of your thesis is that there is no "credit crunch", and if what we were/are facing is a "credit crunch", it's not a problem.
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Old 30-10-2008, 13:08:51   #399
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Old 30-10-2008, 13:14:33   #400
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http://www.springer.com/business/bus...-3-540-71837-6
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