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Old 13-04-2016, 12:55:52   #11
MoSe
Cutie of Hearts
 
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Join Date: Feb 2002
Location: my karma ran over my dogma
the long chase is over but not the race yet

forgive me if I focus for now on the CG League Title race only,
but there's over 50p down to 3rd place, albeit the 3 teams vying for the last podium step got good scores too

the league standings show I've leapfrogged Walrus Feeder by 27p before last DGW match tonite,
but FPL don't count autosub pts before the whole GW is over,
so that gap will be nearly halved when Walrus will bring in from the bench his Vardy 13p in place of (unexpectedly?) not-playing Coutinho
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...#gid=640114299
(25% of Top10k FPL teams started him, and 13.5 of all teams)
Luckily for me, Walrus played Bellerin instead of Moreno

so the "actual" standings should read

1800 MoSe
1786 Walrus

we both have Lukaku Captain, but mine is Triple :/ so he'll count as one for me only

who we play in tonite match:

MoSe : +14p lead +Lukaku +Coleman +Dann +Hennessey
Walrus : "just" +Delaney

barring freak events, it's rather likley that the current lead would extend, even shouldn't my TC gamble pay off

Of course Walrus played his WC this GW, and I presume he did it with DGW34 in mind, rather than this one
Luckily for me, he had already played his BB chip ("wasting" it a bit as he only got extra 5p), so he can't further exploit his 11 DGW34 doublers +Kane +3 Foxes
I expect him to reasonably TC Sanchez next GW, whom I lack atm
I only have 7 GW34 doulbers, I might take one or two hits to bring that number to 9 (and/or upgrading one existing doubler with GW35 in mind too)
But it will be hard for me to afford Sanchez, and sacrificing Kane paid off this GW but could hurt me back for GW35, bringing him back could be hard as well (besides, the predicted price changes are of course going the opposite way, making it also everyday harder)

All considered, I expect Walrus to claw back next GW the best part of the lead I'll eventually build up tonite, and Blank GW35 will also be a bit risky for me without one futher hit...

That said, despite not having laid out a proper plan in details, my strategy was to "ride out" DGW33-34 & BGW35 only using the TC chip, keeping the combo to be deployed in the run-in: WC36 - BB37 - AOA38
when there will be less variables to consider, making my task hopefully easier and maybe alliowing me to even choose some "extreme" solution

In summary, I fully expect and accept Walrus to take the lead back over GW34-35, but I'll coil to spring forward again in the run-in

A very interesting league race!
Good luck to us all, and may the best win
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