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MoSe
27-02-2015, 10:01:33
...for the TWO other readers of this forum... ;) :p :rolleyes:

WOW
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014%E2%80%9315_FA_Cup In a change to Europa League rules, qualifying slots for national cup winners no longer pass to the runners-up if the winners have already qualified through their leagueDumb decision

I realised there's actually much more than that

Main Change, EL Winners now will qualify for next season CL
as Inter fans and pundits never fail to recall :lol:

UEFA source (http://www.uefa.org/mediaservices/mediareleases/newsid=1956122.html)
The UEFA Europa League winners will be granted access to the play-offs of the subsequent UEFA Champions League season.
- OR -
The UEFA Europa League winners could even gain direct access to the group stage,
should the UEFA Champions League title-holders also qualify via their domestic league, thus freeing up a place in the UEFA Champions League group stage.
As an effect of the UEFA Europa League winners qualifying for the UEFA Champions League,
the current limit of a maximum four teams per association will be increased to five
all associations will now have a maximum three teams entering the UEFA Europa League [associations ranked 7-9 had 2 in UCL and 4 in EL so far]
the number of teams directly qualified for the group stage will be increased to 16 teams from the top 12 associations
(compared to the current six teams from the top six associations)


I could not find further releases on uefa.com,
but found two uefa circulars reported inside one by the Spanish Association
http://www.as.com/misc/circular_nuevo_formato_UCL.pdf
N° 47/2013 - 4 Oct 2013 (page 3 of the linked pdf)
N° 38/2014 - 17 July 2014 (page 9)

N°47 also confirms that the domestic cup runner-up can no longer gain a berth, as per my initial quote
N°38 is just a Reminder to the Associations :)

you can also find a summary on wiki CL/EL pages for next season
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015%E2%80%9316_UEFA_Champions_League#Format_chang es
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015%E2%80%9316_UEFA_Europa_League#Format_changes
___

in specific:

ENGLAND:

Should Chelsea (or unlikely now City or Arsenal)
win CL AND fail to qualify from PL (i.e. get 5th or lower, also very unlikely atm)
they'd qualify to CL groups in addition to the top 4 teams in PL
-
Should Everton (the sole remaining in EL for England)
win EL (possible?) AND fail to qualify to CL from PL (very likely indeed :lol: )
they'd qualify to CL PO/groups in addition to the top 4 teams in PL
-
Should BOTH of the above happen,
the CL Winner AND Everton will both play CL in addition to the top 3 teams in PL,
but the 4th will be demoted to EL, as the teams limit per Association has been increased to 5, but not 6


GERMANY:

CL: substitute Chelsea with Bayern
Leverkusen or Dortmund also keep some chance to qualify (not much Schalke),
and they would likely NOT get 4th or better in Bundesliga (well maybe Bayer, at the expense of 04 indeed)
-
EL: only Wolfsburg remain, but they have 12pts margin over 5th place in Bundesliga, with 12 games to go


SPAIN:

CL: Real and Barça are 99% and 95% qualified to QF, but never in the world will they fall 5th below Sevilla in La Liga
Atlético would have to beat Bayer 1-0 or by 2 in the home 2nd leg, to progress. Also their chances to drop below 4th in La Liga are slim.
-
EL: here they have two, Sevilla & Villarreal, who are currently 5th and 6th domestically, 5pts adrift 4th Valencia
should they win EL, good chances to see 5 spanish teams in CL next season...


ITALY:
here we start with just 3 teams to CL, so there's no risk of breaching the new 5-teams limit :D

CL: Juve are well poised to qualify for QF if they resist in Dortmund, but will hardly manage to win it
...and even in case, they'd have to fall behind in Serie A not only Roma and Napoli, but also Lazio/Fiorentina who're 17/18pts adrift!
-
EL: FULL HOUSE! 5 teams still in it.
Roma and Napoli have 8 and 5 points margin for CL qualification via Serie A,
but Inter and Fiorentina do fulfill the requisites indeed (for Torino it's already a miracle they got to Rof16...)
-
in the wild wild case Juve win CL but fall Behind Roma/Napoli/Lazio in Serie A, AND Inter/Fiorentina win EL,
Italy would have 5 teams in CL nexst season, more than Eng/Spa/Ger! :lol:

_____

everything should be much clearer in 3 weeks time, when both cups will be aligned to QF

see you then for updates!
:beer:

Funko
27-02-2015, 11:35:01
:beer: good work.

Fistandantilus
27-02-2015, 14:29:06
Main Change, EL Winners now will qualify for next season CL


Awesome decision. :p

MoSe
14-05-2015, 06:47:56
OK, now I've found the link to the official UEFA UCL Regulations
http://www.uefa.org/MultimediaFiles/Download/Regulations/uefaorg/Regulations/02/23/57/51/2235751_DOWNLOAD.pdf
Article 3 on page 10 covers the issue, and although the following points mainly detail the case in wihich BOTH Titleholders come from the SAME association,
they help to clarify one principle which was unclear to me (and to Galliani ;) )
3.03
If the UEFA Champions League titleholder qualifies for the UEFA Europa League through one of its domestic competitions,
the number of places to which its association is entitled in the UEFA Europa League is decreased by one.
The same is repeated in Article 3.06 of the EL Regualtions
http://www.uefa.org/MultimediaFiles/Download/Regulations/uefaorg/Regulations/02/23/69/59/2236959_DOWNLOAD.pdf
If the UEFA Europa League titleholder qualifies for the UEFA Europa League through one of its domestic competitions,
the number of places to which its association is entitled in the UEFA Europa League is decreased by one
That is to say, the "EL rights" of a team "promoted" to CL will NOT be transferred to an extra team. The Association should already be happy that one of their team got promoted from EL to CL :D

MoSe
14-05-2015, 08:40:10
Having made that clear:

SPAIN
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014%E2%80%9315_La_Liga#League_table
UPPERCASE HOME 37 38
4 Valencia 73 CELTA almeria
5 SEVILLA 70 ALMERIA malagaMalaga are 7th and Celta 3p behind
they can hope for last EL berth provided Bilbao (who are also 1p behind Malaga) won't snatch it beating Barça in the Copa
Almeria are just 1p ahead of a trio (Deportivo, Granada, Eibar), 2 of the 4 will get relegated
Valencia are also ahead Sevilla on H2H, so they just need to win one
Villarreal are 13p behind Sevilla, who are thus guaranteed 5th place at least

IN SUMMARY, should Sevilla win EL
- and get 4th, nothing will change: 4 teams in CL, 3 teams in EL
- and stay 5th, Spain will have 5 teams in CL, and just 2 teams in EL

ITALY
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014%E2%80%9315_Serie_A#League_table
36 37 38
2 Roma 64 UDINE lazio PALERMO
3 Lazio 63 samp ROMA napoli
-----------
4 NAPOLI 60 CESENA juve LAZIO
5 FIORE 55 PARMA palerm CHIEVO
6 Samp 54 LAZIO empoli PARMA
___________
7 Genoa 53 atalan INTER sassuolo
8 Inter 52 JUVE genoa EMPOLI

9 Torino 48 CHIEVO milan CESENA
X Milan 46 sassuo TORINO atalantawith 9p at stake, both Napoli and Fiorentina can "in theory" get either a CL spot, or fail EL
- seriously, Napoli could bank on Lazio tough run-in and hosting them in last match, but could consider their EL qualification rather safe
- CL spot is instead a far cry for Fiorentina, while they should be wary of the chasers close behind, albeit having realatively easier fixtures

Juve won scudetto 2 GW ago already, and they'll have to squeeze in now the Coppa Italia final (vs Lazio) between GW 36 & 37, having to play the CL one the week after GW38. Apart their pride, their head will be elsewhere! So probably not the obastacle they ciould've been for Napoli, and Inter (who chase Fiorentina)
Lazio will have the hardest run in, all matches with direct competitors and Juve in the Cup final

In any case, they'd need to get to EL final first.
Tonite, Napoli @Dnipro won't be easy, but I see them still a bit favourites anyway
Fiorentina qualifying would be a major upset given they lost 1st leg 0-3 away. True, they've been punished in Sevilla beyond their demerits, and they've been very unlucky to not score 1 or even 2 in the first half. Should the Viola go 2-0 ahead within the 1st half, it could stil be possible. But albeit andalusians showed they are NOT THAT SOLID in defence after all, they now can sit back and wait, they won't be easily conceding...

in case the EL winner is one of the two italian teams, and

they'll have managed to climb to 3rd place
nothing will change: 3 teams in CL, 3 teams in EL
they stay where they are
Italy will have 4 teams in CL, and just 2 teams in EL
they'll have fallen behind 6th
Italy will have 4 teams in CL, and also the regular 3 teams in EL (thus increasing the total by one)
of course the latter is highly improbable, as Napoli can win EL but will hardly slip down to 7th, while Fiorentina could slip to 7th but only in the wildest dream can win EL

MoSe
14-05-2015, 09:36:10
another major (imho) change in the UCL format will impact the UCL Groups Draw SEEDING

I'll only quote what's in the absolutely reliable "UEFA European Cup Football
by Bert Kassies" site, can't be bothered fishing for official UEFA sources now, although I figure it's covered in the Regulations I lined to in the above posts

http://kassiesa.home.xs4all.nl/bert/uefa/seedcl2015.html
towards the bottom, before the Group Stage box:
From this season on, the title-holder and the champions of the 7 top-ranked associations are placed in pot 1. If the title-holder is from one of the 7 top-ranked associations, the champion of the association ranked 8 is also put in pot 1. The other pots are filled according to the club ranking.
The Top 8 Associations at the end of this 2015 season are already determined:
http://kassiesa.home.xs4all.nl/bert/uefa/data/method4/crank2015.html# country 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 ranking teams
1 Spain 18.214 20.857 17.714 23.000 19.214 98.999 2/ 7
2 England 18.357 15.250 16.428 16.785 13.571 80.391 7
3 Germany 15.666 15.250 17.928 14.714 15.857 79.415 7
4 Italy 11.571 11.357 14.416 14.166 19.000 70.510 3/ 6
5 Portugl 18.800 11.833 11.750 9.916 9.083 61.382 6
6 France 10.750 10.500 11.750 8.500 10.916 52.416 6
7 Russia 10.916 9.750 9.750 10.416 9.666 50.498 6
8 Ukraine 10.083 7.750 9.500 7.833 9.500 44.666 1/ 6Spain, Italy and Ukraine can still increase their relative ranking, but no association behint 8th can
The Title holder will surely come from one of the Top8.
The only reason why Ukraine is not included yet, is that while Juve is Italian Champion elect, Barça isn't yet (had Real won yesterday, Ukr had been alredy in ;)). Real could in theory still snatch La Liga, albeit that's rather unlikely (4p behind with 2 to go)...

ALTHOUGH, reading that better, Bert says...
" If the title-holder is FROM one of the top 7"
NOT
" If the title-holder is one of the top 7 CHAMPIONS"

sticking literally by that, EVEN IF Barça win CL and Real win Liga, the 8th seed will got to Ukraine, and NOT to Real????

...it looks like I WILL have to bother checking after all :D and/or write to Bert...
__________
IN ANY CASE, the 8th spot doubt will only be between UKR champion or Real.
this means that Spain, Portugal and ENGLAND runnerups (and 3rd placed maybe) who usually could sneak into Pot 1 thanks to their ranking, will inevitably go into Pot 2 regardless their ranking is higher than the Top7/8 Champions

see also http://www.theguardian.com/football/2015/apr/22/uefa-champions-league-seedings-arsenal?CMP=share_btn_tw
(April 22nd, a bit out of date)
Arsenal and United would both almost certainly be among a strong group of second seeds due to their high Uefa club ranking
but City have dropped out of the top 16 clubs according to Uefa’s latest co-efficients.
It would be the first time more for than a decade that Arsenal and United have not been top seeds.
City were not top seeds last August despite being English champions while Chelsea and Arsenal were

MoSe
14-05-2015, 09:44:56
...can't be bothered fishing for official UEFA sources now, although I figure it's covered in the Regulations I linked to in the above posts
[...]
ALTHOUGH, reading that better, Bert says...
" If the title-holder is FROM one of the top 7"
NOT
" If the title-holder is one of the top 7 CHAMPIONS"

[...]

...it looks like I WILL have to bother checking after all :D and/or write to Bert...

http://www.uefa.org/MultimediaFiles/Download/Regulations/uefaorg/Regulations/02/23/57/51/2235751_DOWNLOAD.pdf
Article 13.05 page 21
If the titleholder is one of the top seven associations' domestic champions, the group is completed with the champion of the association ranked eight
SO
if Barça win CL and Real win La Liga, BOTH will be Top Seeds, and Ukraine champion will be seeded according to their ranking (thus probably not even in Pot 2)

MoSe
14-05-2015, 10:05:36
FORGIVE ME, I had overlooked this
http://kassiesa.home.xs4all.nl/bert/uefa/access2015.html
the access list for the 2015/2016 season of the Champions League and the Europa League. In this list the sequence of the countries is determined by the UEFA Country Ranking 2014

Also, in the UEFA Regulations:
13.03
The UEFA administration seeds clubs for the qualifying phase, the play-offs and the group stage, in accordance with the club coefficient rankings established at the beginning of the seasonbut13.05
The first group comprises the titleholder (top seed) and the domestic champions of the seven top-ranked associations in accordance with
the access list

THUS
for the 2015/16 UCL, the Club Ranking will be the 2015 one (i.e. the current one)
BUT the Association Ranking used to seed Pot 1 will be that of the Access List for the 2015/16 UCL,
which was set at the beginning of the current 2014/15 season
(to let the clubs know how many berths they would be competing for in their leagues)
and was thus based on the 2014 Ranking

in 2014, Netherlands was the 8th association (albeit Ukraine have overtaken them in the course of the season)
so the team hanging is PSV:
in case Barça win CL and Real win Liga, PSV will tumble from Pot1 to Pot3
(considering Pot 2 will be filled with 3 Spa, 1 Por, 2 Eng,
and there are easily 2 other teams qualifying with a better coefficient than PSV's poor 58.2,
including Ned runnerups Ajax themselves should they emerge from playoffs)

MoSe
14-05-2015, 10:57:05
to keep an eye live on how the projected ranking/seeding develops, here's an axcellent online spreadsheet
https://onedrive.live.com/view.aspx?resid=4FE4712A1E3EA4FA!175&ithint=file%2cxlsx&app=Excel&authkey=!AOXC9yi0-hN17Z8
(I realise it already assumes Napoli-Sevilla will be the EL final, and Villa won't win the FA Cup :D)

BTW, your extra EL berth will likely go for Hammers now, but they'll have to begin 1st round July 2nd
http://www.premierleague.com/en-gb/news/news/2014-15/may/080515-premier-league-awarded-extra-european-place.html

Fistandantilus
14-05-2015, 11:27:24
This seems way more complicated than it should be

Funko
14-05-2015, 12:04:42
Yeah it certainly does.

Let's ditch seeding, stop trying to make sure the same old clubs get into the later stages. :mad:

MoSe
14-05-2015, 12:20:24
I should have been a lawyer...
(do you remember when discussing the AC unit cost formula with an idiot on Poly, they dubbed me there "Spock meet Ken Starr" ? :lol: )

but the bottom line is rather simple instead, and it's already going in the direction you platini-lovers said above :p

the separated champion-nonchampion path from UCL Q3 introduced a few seasons ago, allows 5 champions from the 2nd tier associations to get into group stage, instead of getting likely out before vs top associations runnerups

and all the above are just details to say:
Top 8 association champions will be Top Seeds, regardless their club rankings
"Champions is about winning" Infantino is quoted to say in the Regulations indeed
(I think he's a mafia mobster, but that's another issue)
:D

MoSe
14-05-2015, 12:24:32
Let's ditch seeding, stop trying to make sure the same old clubs get into the later stages. :mad:
OK, let's just decide who plays the final with the state lottery, and hope it's Barça v Preston North End! :p :lol:

and then make it just a blindfolded penalty shootout

Funko
14-05-2015, 12:51:21
You're not addressing the underlying point. The seeding encourages the status quo, the teams from the big leagues continue to go to the later stages, the small nations clubs mostly go out early, keeping the money and dominance in the big leagues, and keeping the most money in the handful of top teams in the top leagues.

I don't think that's a desirable situation. Even if it was a totally random group stage draw, the best teams would tend to the latter stages, but at least you'd have a chance of some weird results. In the last 20 years we've only had 2 occasions when a team from outside the big 4 nations made the final, and none for more than 10 years. Which is rubbish.

MoSe
14-05-2015, 15:26:55
You're not addressing the underlying point. The seeding encourages the status quo
Deliberately: we discussed it in the past, and I still don't like the solution of making big teams clash early AT RANDOM.
I posted more than once that i'm a paladin for INTEGRAL SEEDING, and I still am

keeping the money and dominance in the big leagues, and keeping the most money in the handful of top teams in the top leagues.
I don't think that's a desirable situation. II'm of course aware that0's a negative side effectEven if it was a totally random group stage draw, the best teams would tend to the latter stages, but at least you'd have a chance of some weird results. that's exactly what I'm adeversing.
Upsets can occur, without the need to FORCE them AT RANDOM
In the last 20 years we've only had 2 occasions when a team from outside the big 4 nations made the final, and none for more than 10 years. Which is rubbish.It's a pity that no outsider managed to emerge recently, but I think that seeding only played a minor role in it, and that removing it would be a cure worse than the problem, a lottery as I posted above (y'all say I'm longwinded, and see where do you lead me for once I posted a concise post :p)
the main fault is
- MONEY, as I agreed above, but you counter that with specific countermeasures, for instance with FFP, not by randomly robinhooding it to just any random passerby
- the Champions LEAGUE concept itself - weaker nations teams used to emerge because top countrie only brought ONE team.
If Top 3 bring 3 more teams each, that's 9 outsiders seeing their chances to emerge enormously reduced because, frankly, they ARE generally weaker than England or Germany or Spain 4th club. OR RATHER, to be correct, that's ANY outsider chances reduced, because while 2 out of 3 Top countries Champions can fail one season, leaving one final spot open to outsiders, it's much more difficult and unlikely that 11 out of 12 top countries big teams do!!!
That is being indeed countered by Plating fine-tuning and tweaking the format to safeguard the chances of countries ranked below 6th and below 12th (the Champions Path) and by stifling a bit the top countries runnerups (only champions iget top seed, extra teams will have to content of lower seeds)
it's maybe not enough, I maybe not completely agree or like all of that either, but that's the direction you should work in imho. Not making it a lottery (BTW, FA Cup random draw might be fun for you, but it never made sense to me and I don't like it)

Moreso: let's say Steaua or Red Star Belgrade managed to emerge again because they succeed in overcoming their normally seeded and a bit stronger opponents step by step, I'd be happy too. I too was siding for Cluj or Basel when recently they caused some upset to top teams, by excellent performances.
But if they get to the final somewhat undeservedly, only because sheer luck opened a higway for them with random selected opponents, I might be impressed by the unexpected novelty, but they wen they'll get swamped in the final vs the remaing big team, offering a largely inadequate opposition, well, I would NOt ENJOY the fianl and I would think THAT IS RUBBISH! imho :p
JUVENTUS themselves, fully deserved to beat Real in the semis.
But despite coming from the 4th ranked association, vs Barça they look minnows nevertheless (I didn't check yet but I excpect bookies odds like Barça 5/4 and Juve 5). And Juve DID GET SIGNIFICANTLY HELPED by the lucky draw offering the Dortmund & Monaco in R16 & QF
PSG, Porto and Monaco did have the chancfe too to get to semis, but failed. Probaly because they DID NOT DESERVE IT. And their draw WAS RANDOM at QF stage.
There WAS the chance to have PSG-Juve and Porto-Monaco QF. And then with a PSG-Porto semi, there would have been a finaliost from France or Portugal, outside the top 4 association. If that didn't happen, IT'S NOT FAULT OF THE SEEDING. Because THERE WAS NO SEEDING. And if Porto woould have locked out with the draws only to lose 6-1 in the final, well, that wiuld ahve been rubbish!

I hope I made my PoV clear enough. :D
I thought I did it already in the past, maybe it needed a refresh ;)

Funko
15-05-2015, 12:18:04
Yeah, I don't remember discussing it before. I don't really care either way - but the current seeding regulations are ridiculously complex.

Also facing a much stronger team doesn't mean it'll be a boring 1 sided match. See Reading vs Arsenal at Wembley for details, where underdogs Arsenal put on a good show and even managed to win the game.

MoSe
21-05-2015, 12:24:28
with Napoli inopinapoly going out vs Dnipro,
it's up to Sevilla, who are just 1p behind 4th placed Vanencia now, to upgrade the Spain CL participation to 5 teams (in case they fail to overtake Valencia)

in case of Dnipro winning EL instead :eek: they'd change Ukrainian participation from 2 CL + 3 EL to 3 CL + 2 EL
(there's still a very slim chance fot Dnipro to snatch 2nd place from Shaktar, which would leave it at 2+3 regardless)

https://onedrive.live.com/view.aspx?resid=4FE4712A1E3EA4FA!175&ithint=file%2cxlsx&app=Excel&authkey=!AOXC9yi0-hN17Z8

MoSe
22-05-2015, 06:54:53
TEETH PUNS!
http://www.fiso.co.uk/forum/viewtopic.php?p=2707856#p2707856
:lol:
first some curious info
(you'd be aware anyway that FPL orangeflagged him)
then the dam broke and they couldn't hold themselves
it remebered me of CG heydays

OOOPSSS!
WRONG THREAD! :lol: