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Back!
20-07-2012, 12:29:47
http://kassiesa.home.xs4all.nl/bert/uefa/calendar2012.html
the draw for 3rd round has just completed, although only 1st leg of 2nd round has been played
http://kassiesa.home.xs4all.nl/bert/uefa/data/method4/match2013.html

thus the seeding table is actually aligned to 2nd round only, with the 3 teams qualified from the 1st round
But as Bert points out, this didn't really matterfor the draw:
Unseeded teams in the 2nd qualifying round that qualify for the next round take effectively the coefficient of their opponent in the next round. The reason for this is that the draw for the 3rd qualifying round is made before the results of the 2nd qualifying round are known.
http://kassiesa.home.xs4all.nl/bert/uefa/seedcl2012.html
as of now, Bert didn't update 3rd round matches yet, I figure they'll be there shortly

here's UEFA site
http://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/news/newsid=1842546.html#dynamo+drawn+against+feyenoord
Champions Route
NK Maribor (SVN)/FK Äeljezničar (BIH) v F91 Dudelange (LUX)/FC Salzburg (AUT)
FC BATE Borisov (BLR)*/FK Vardar (MKD) v KS SkŰnderbeu (ALB)/Debreceni VSC (HUN)
CFR 1907 Cluj (ROU) v FC Slovan Liberec (CZE)/FC Shakhter Karagandy (KAZ)
RSC Anderlecht (BEL) v Shamrock Rovers FC (IRL)/FK Ekranas (LTU)
FK Budućnost Podgorica (MNE)/WKS Śląsk Wroclaw (POL) v The New Saints FC (WAL)/Helsingsborgs IF (SWE)
Ulisses FC (ARM)/FC Sheriff (MDA) v PFC Ludogorets Razgrad (BUL)/GNK Dinamo Zagreb (CRO)*
Celtic FC (SCO) v HJK Helsinki (FIN)/KR ReykjavÝk (ISL)
Molde FK (NOR)/FK Ventspils (LVA) v FC Flora Tallinn (EST)/FC Basel 1893 (SUI)*
MŐK Äilina (SVK)/Hapoel Kiryat Shmona FC (ISR) v Neftši PFK (AZE)/FC Zestafoni (GEO)
AEL Limassol FC (CYP)/Linfield FC (NIR) v Valletta FC (MLT)/FK Partizan (SRB)

League Route
Fenerbahše SK (TUR) v FC Vaslui (ROU)
Motherwell FC (SCO) v Panathinaikos FC (GRE)
FC K°benhavn (DEN) v Club Brugge KV (BEL)
FC Dynamo Kyiv (UKR) v Feyenoord (NED)


Anyway, this was to introduce what would the seeding be for the 4 Pots in the Group Draw to be held Aug 30th, if all seeded teams proceed


Pot 1 coef. Pot 2 coef.
------------------------ --- ------- ------------------------ --- -------
Chelsea (TH) Eng 135.882 Valencia Esp 89.837
FC Barcelona Esp 157.837 Benfica Por 87.069
Manchester United Eng 141.882 Shakhtar Donetsk Ukr 84.026
Bayern MŘnchen Ger 133.037 Zenit St. Petersburg Rus 79.066
Real Madrid Esp 121.837 Schalke 04 Ger 78.037
Arsenal Eng 113.882 Manchester City Eng 63.882
FC Porto Por 98.069 Sporting Braga *4 Por 63.069
AC Milan Ita 89.996 Dinamo Kiev *3 Ukr 62.026

Pot 3 coef. Pot 4 coef.
------------------------ --- ------- ------------------------ --- -------
Olympiakos Piraeus Gre 61.420 Paris Saint-Germain Fra 45.835
Ajax Ned 58.103 Galatasaray Tur 38.310
FC Basel ** Sui 53.360 Celtic *3 Sco 32.728
Panathinaikos *3 Gre 50.920 Borussia Dortmund Ger 31.037
Anderlecht *3 Bel 48.480 BATE Borisov ** Bls 29.641
Juventus Ita 46.996 FC Salzburg ** Aut 29.265
FC K°benhavn *3 Den 46.505 Montpellier Fra 11.835
Spartak Moscow *4 Rus 46.066 FC NordsjŠlland Den 8.005

as you can see, first 14 ranked teams in the seeding are automatic qualifiers
only the last two berths in Pot 2 can be freed, should Braga and Kiev fail to qualify, in favor of clubs with lower coefficient
In such case, only Olympiakos and Ajax can be promoted from Pot 3 to Pot 2

the unseeded teams with coefficients high enough to eventually promote them from Pot 4 to Pot 3 are
41.310 Fenerbahše
38.996 Udinese
38.835 Lille
35.480 Brugge
they're all behind PSG's 45.835, thus it will be enough that just one of the 2 clubs playing preliminaries provisionally seeded in Pot 2 or of the 5 in Pot 3 fails, to let the french step up to Pot 3
___

see how narrow was the margin allowing AC Milan to go back in Pot 1 at the expenses of Valencia

in Pot 2 all teams are decent, but the only one who stand out are ManCity

in Pot 3 I don't know if Ajax is going to reinforce the squad
Italian football is in decline but coming-back Juventus promise better than greek, swiss, belgian or dane teams (their poor ranking still pays the 2007 relegation after 2006 scandal, and the subsequent absence or weakness in euro cups)

in Pot 4, if no higher seeded team fail to qualify, we have "names" like Galatasaray, Celtic, Borussia Dortmund, and the sheik-fueled juggernaut PSG

imagine a group with

Real / Barša / Bayern
ManCity
Ajax / Juve
PSG
but I'm sure PSG won't end to stay in Pot 4

Anyway, follow in the above link how the provisional pot seeding will evolve as the rounds go on

stay tuned
:)

Back!
10-08-2012, 10:34:27
http://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/season=2013/draws/index.html


Champions route
FC Basel 1893 (SUI) v CFR 1907 Cluj (ROU)
Helsingborgs IF (SWE) v Celtic FC (SCO)
FC BATE Borisov (BLR) v Hapoel Kiryat Shmona FC (ISR)
AEL Limassol FC (CYP) v RSC Anderlecht (BEL)
GNK Dinamo Zagreb (CRO) v NK Maribor (SVN)

League route
SC Braga (POR) v Udinese Calcio (ITA)
FC Spartak Moskva (RUS) v Fenerbahše SK (TUR)
Mßlaga CF (ESP) v Panathinaikos FC (GRE)
VfL Borussia M÷nch. (GER) v FC Dynamo Kyiv (UKR)
LOSC Lille MÚtropole (FRA) v FC K°benhavn (DEN)

The first legs will take place on 21/22 August with the returns a week later

Back!
10-08-2012, 10:51:56
in bold, the clubs who'd free spots from lower pots if eliminated

Braga and Kiev to Pot 2
Basel, Pana, Anderlecht, Kobenhavn & Spartak to Pot 3

As said before, only Olympiakos and Ajax can step up into Pot 2
Oly can hope in either Udinese or Borussia
Ajax must hope that both overturn the seeding

to get in Pot 3
PSG just needs that any of the above 7 teams fail to qualify
Galatasaray instead would have queue behind Fenerbahše, Udinese and Lille in the order
This leaves two in Basel, Anderlecht, Pana or Kiev to fail
Celtic can hope too, bu they need three in the above 4 to fail
So does Dortmund if all 4 fall
Fenerbahše, top unseeded club, besides eliminating Spartak would need any one of the other 6 to fail
Udinese would need 2 other, and Lille would need 3 other

Back!
22-08-2012, 07:51:56
On 1st matchday the only seeded team to lose first leg are Basel, who last season eliminated ManU in the group phase
The score now says Cluj, but neither club looks really solid, so any result could be expected imho

The newly acquired 4th german team in CL didn't fare much better than the italian one whose place they took.
Borussia M. hardly look fit to overturn the 1-3 home defeat in 2nd leg @ Kiev
This greatly reduces Ajax hopes to step into Pot 2. We'll see if Braga tonite leave a door open for Olympiakos

Celtic practically secured qualification with a 2-0 away win, too much difference face the swede champions Helsingborg

Kobenhavn owe their seeding to the coeff points gained from 2010/11 qualification to KO phase, in a group where they got RU ahead of Rubin and Pana.
Lille won Ligue1 2 seasons ago, but got 4th in last season CL group; in the 2 previous cup seasons they entered EL (getting to Rof16 and to Rof32). They need a win by two to overturn Kobenhavn's 1st leg 1-0

Fenerbahše would go thru with a 1-0, thanks to the 1-2 they got in Moscow vs Spartak. This was the closest match according to coefficients, Spartak have the score advantage but it's still rather open with the 2nd leg in Turkey

Back!
23-08-2012, 06:57:04
a bit more upsets in yesterday's matches
no away wins, but other 3 seeded teams are down in score after 1st leg

Experienced BATE had no problems against the lowest ranked israelis

Zagreb toiled a little more in the Sloven-Croat derby, but managed to get a home 2-1 vs Maribor.
Notable in this match: it was Badelj last one before transferring to Hamburg, he conceded the equaliser with a *fantastic* own goal, then scored a fine 2nd goal for Dinamo to redeem it

One'd have expected Malaga in disarray now that the sheiks forsake them, still it was a one-way match vs Pana.
The greeks are usually tough, but I can't see them overturn a 0-2 albeit in Athens

After Anorthosis and Apoel, now it's Limassol turn to make sensation for Cyprus.
OK, it's "just" a home 2-1 vs Anderlecht, who have more in their "name" than an actually strong team, nevertheless it was unexpected.

Finally, top-seeded Braga (in this round).
They were EL finalists 2 years ago, and still a good side.
They started well, but went down mid 1st half on a corner-kick header.
They kept the initiative and possession, but risked to go down 0-2 before equalising with a tremendous 35 metres missile by their new player Ismaily, just under the bar top-right corner, an inch beyond the goalie's reach. Look for it on youtube if you missed it on TV.
There were also a couple miracle saves on both sides, but Braga wouldn't have deserved to lose.
Still an away 1-1 gives the score advantage to Udinese. They'll need a win or a 0-0 at Friuli Stadium, and neither is to be taken for granted, still they're the favorites to make it this year, after they made Arsenal tremble in last season playoff.

Back!
23-08-2012, 07:25:32
so, summary before next week 2nd leg

my personal odds for the seeded teams to get eliminated

Pot 2
Braga - I give Udinese a 60% to go thru

Pot 3
Basel - 65% for Cluj to defend the advantage on home ground
Panathinaikos - 80% or more imho that they won't overturn a 0-2
Anderlecht - a 1-0 would be enough, still beware the Cypriots. A 48% that the belgian team fail
Kobenhavn - they'd qualify with a 1-2 (or 2-3, etc.). Lille is supposed to be stronger, they play home and have my preference. Still I rate the Dane elimination no more than 55%
Spartak - the match v Fenerbahše will be interesting, but I think they'll make it in Turkey. no more than 35-40% that they fail

Let's say in the worst case that all the above fail to qualify, except Spartak.
This would promote Olympiakos to Pot 2 in place of Braga
PSG, Udinese, Lille, Galatasaray and Celtic* to Pot 3 (behind Ajax, Juve & Spartak)

Dortmund would remain in Pot 4, followed by Bate, Zagreb, Cluj, Malaga, Montpellier, Nordsjaelland and Limassol* in coeff order

(*should AEL crash in Brussels, all the rest unchanged, Anderlecht would remain in Pot 3 and Celtic in Pot 4)

Fistandantilus
29-08-2012, 14:31:21
I know you got it wrong on Udinese, how about the others? :p