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12-04-2012, 07:41:11
a roundup for domestic football leagues in Europe, as they approach to their completion

http://kassiesa.home.xs4all.nl/bert/uefa/qual2012.html

let's start with EPL

Back!
12-04-2012, 07:44:37
79 74 64 59 59 57
dates ManUtd ManCity Arsenal Spurs Newcastle Chelsea
14-16 v Villa @ Norwich v Wigan <cup> - <cup>
21-22 V Everton @ Wolves v Chelsea @ QPR v Stoke @ Arsenal
28-30 @ ManCity v ManUtd @ Stoke v Rovers @ Wigan v QPR
02 - - - @ Bolton @ Chelsea v Newcast
05-06 v Swansea @ Newcast v Norwich @ Villa v ManCity @ Liverpool
13 @ Sunderl v QPR @ W.Brom v Fulham @ Everton v Rovers


should even City win the home derby, they'd have 2 more points to make up in 4 games
ManU just stumbled vs lowly Wigan, so nothing can be ruled out

Arsenal drew 5 points clear over chasers
imho they only have to watch out for Spurs who have an easier run-in

There are good chances that 6th place will NOT give access to Europa League
With Liverpool already qualified via League Cup, most will depend on this weekend FA Cup semifinals, Tottenham-Chelsea and Liverpool-Everton

Back!
12-04-2012, 08:24:27
incredible:
Rennes lost Cup semifinal vs Quevilly

now we have Lyon as finalist in both cups
League Cup will be played this weekend, and it's O.Marseille last realistic chance to access Europa Leauge next season
should they lose, they won't get in as Final Losers, as this is the "minor" Cup and that privilege is reserved to Coupe de France proper

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011–12_Ligue_1

66 Montpellier
63 PSG

56 Lille
53 Lyon

50 Toulouse
48 Rennes
47 Saint-Étienne

only 3rd place will give access to Champions League (thru preliminaries)
should Lyon overtake Lille with 7 to go, this will automatically give Cup berth to Quevilly, regardless of result
they're a 3rd division club, promoted from Amaterus last season and currently 14th
they had eliminated OM in QF, and now Rennes

Should instead Lyon win both Cups (they're indeed favourites) and NOT qualify for CL, this will free 5th and 6th place for EL

Back!
12-04-2012, 08:43:45
feel free to add and update

Germany is close to conclusion, only 4 matches to go
With home 1-0 victory in the top clash, B.Dortmund is now 6 clear of Bayern, and pretty much sealed the title
Close fight for the 3 EL berths, with 6 teams in 6 points

Portugal and Netherlands are next to closure too
Porto, Benfica & Braga within 2 points are fighting for title, but all 3 are virtually already in CL, and EL berths are pretty much decided too
in Eredivisie all is still open with 5 to go

Serie A (6) and La Liga (7) have a few more matches to play

Mr. Bas
13-04-2012, 00:46:59
I guess technically 6 teams can still win the championship in the Eredivisie, but it would be a major surprise if Ajax will not clinch it. They're three points above AZ who have a very tricky few matches to go, six or so above Twente and PSV who are playing like shit at the moment, and have five games to go of which three are (on paper) very easy home games. Unless they lose points in very surprising ways and AZ, Twente or PSV manages to win pretty much everything from now on, it's Ajax again. Unfortunately.

Back!
13-04-2012, 10:24:35
thanks for the insights!

I didn't anlayse next fixtures, here's now the table

http://www.uefa.com/memberassociations/association=ned/domesticleague/standings/index.html


61 58 56 55 54 54
dates Ajax AZ Alkmaar Twente Feyenoord PSV Eindh. Herenveen
14-15 v DeGraaf @ PSV v NAC v Excels v AZ @ NEC
21-22 V Groning v Venlo @ Excels @ DenHaag v NEC v Vitesse
29 @ Twente @ Feyenrd v Ajax v AZ @ Roda @ Heracles
02 v Venlo @ NEC v Herenvn v Heracl v DenHaag @ Twente
06 @ Vitesse V Groning @ Venlo @ Herenvn @ Excels v Feyenoord


also very interesting in the uefa link above, is the "form guide":
Ajax indeed are on top form, with a 9-games winning streak!
With 10 more points (lose @ Twente, draw @ Vitesse, win 3 home games) they'd have almost wrapped it, and surely qualified for CL

Netherlands send this year 2 teams to CL and 4 to EL.
http://kassiesa.home.xs4all.nl/bert/uefa/qual2012.html
1st to CL GS
2nd to CL Q3

CW to EL Q4
3rd to EL Q4
4th to EL Q3
5th-8th to PlayOffs for 1 berth in EL Q2

PSV are Cup Winners and currently 5th
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011–12_Eredivisie

- if they climb into first 2, their EL berth will go to Losing Finalist Heracles Almelo, the above table will apply
their first and greatest step to that goal is tomorrow, when they'll host currently 2nd AZ

-if they end with a placement between 3rd and 8th, the EL spots will shift accordingly "around" them, including the 9th club in the final table (all other involved teams will thus be siding against them, except Heracles), as the current picture in the wiki page shows

When I said "all is still open", I was mainly thinking to the 5 teams in 4 points still fighting for 2d CL spot, with "overachieving" AZ having to pay visit on 2 of the chasers ground

Back!
13-04-2012, 13:13:10
Title run: pretty much sealed as I posted above


69 63
B.Dortmund Bayern M.
14 @ Schalke v Mainz
21 v B.Mönch @ Werder
28 @ K'lautn v Stuttgt
05 v Freibrg @ Köln


Schalke 3rd is also 6 beyind Bayern, but there's little relevance in getting 2nd or 3rd
They'd have rather to watch out to the other Borussia 4 behind them, to protect direct CL Group Stage access


57 CL GS 53 CL Q4 46 EL GS 44 EL Q4 44 EL Q3 42 40 40
Schalke 04 B.Mönchen Stuttgart Bayer Lev Hannover Werder B. Hoffenheim Wolfsburg

14 v B.Dortm v Köln v Werder v Hertha @ Hamburg @ Stuttgt @ Freibrg v Augsbrg
21 @ Augsbrg @ B.Dortm @ Köln @ Hoffen v Freibrg v Bayern v Bayer L @ Mainz
28 v Hertha v Augsbrg @ Bayern v Hannovr @ Bayer L @ Wolfsbg v Nürnbrg v Werder
05 @ Werder @ Mainz v Wolfsbg @ Nürnbrg v K'lautn v Schalke @ Hertha @ Stuttgt


it looks like they all play each other! :D
What a run-in do Werder have, it'll be tought for them to clinch EL

Mr. Bas
15-04-2012, 03:42:27
Although neither league is over until it's over, it seems that both the Dutch and German titles are settled by now.

Twente dropped another two points and AZ lost against PSV, both in injury time. Unless Ajax start losing at home against relegation candidates and FC Groningen (shared worst team of 2012 so far :cry:), the title is pretty much secured. Likewise, in Germany, Bayern dropped two points which means that Dortmund now has a 7 point gap with 3 matches to go. It'll take the mother of all meltdowns to deny Dortmund the title.

Any leagues with more excitement for the title?

Back!
16-04-2012, 07:15:16
In France, PSG appointined a new manager when they were topping the table mid-season.
Despite the new coach had won titles in Italy and England (with Milan and Chelsea) under his lead the team is taking all efforts to lose the title.
Montpellier had just lost @ second bottom Lorient, PSG went ahead @ Auxerre, but let them equalise and failed to tie the table lead, remaining now 2 pts adrift.
In the meanwhile OM won the League Cup with an extra-time goal by Brandao, the same one who sent Inter home in CL. Bad news for the trailing team, as one EL spot now goes to Marseille.

Back!
16-04-2012, 08:47:21
Serie A sees a close race too, where Juve just regained 1pt advantage (actually "1.5" as they'd be ahead in case of a tie)

since February:

44*45*46*49*50*51*52 53 56 59 62 65 68
Juve - D D W D D D* D W W W W W
Milan L D W W D W - W W W D L W
43 44 47 50 51 54 57 60 63 64 64 67


the race got "drugged" by the snow postponement of the 1st Feb Juve game, wich left Juve "potentially" 4 pts ahead because Milan lost @ Lazio that day
Even when Milan got 1pt ahead 2 matchdays later, Juve felt as if they were still virtually ahead, and retained that virtual lead after the much controversial draw in S.Siro (Muntari was denied a "ghost" goal ~1m inside the line).
But then Juve strung 3 more draws, vs mid-low teams including the snow postponed match, while Milan won 2 swinging from 4 vritual points behind to 4 real points ahead.
Milan looked like a train barreling to title, but then on both sides of CL 2nd leg lost @ Barça, they got stopped to an away draw by rampant Catania, and incredibly to a home defeat by struggling Fiorentina (Milan had even got ahead with a very generous penalty)

Anything could happen, but Juve have it in their hands now with the added confidence of a winning streak of 5, while Milan looks far from able to win them all...


68 67
Juventus AC Milan
22 v Roma v Bologna
25* @ Cesena v Genoa
29 @ Novara @ Siena
02 v Lecce v Atalanta
06 @ Cagliari @ Inter
13 v Atalanta v Novara


http://www.uefa.com/memberassociations/association=ita/domesticleague/standings/index.html
Cesena & Novara are virtually relegated
Atalanta, Siena, Bologna Cagliari are mid-low teams "reasonably safe" from relegation
Lecce on a desperate chase got within 2pts of Genoa who suddenly now must fight to avoid relegation, so both could put up a tougher challenge than expected.
Rollercoaster Roma brought themselves only 4 pts adrift from CL preliminary, although still just 2 ahead of losing EL; otoh they have a terrible away form.
The most serious obstacle on Milan's comeback run is the S.Siro Derby on 2nd last match (to be played "at inter's home", thus with hostile crowd).
Probably Inter will still be in the heart of the fight for europe berths, and in any case Derbies are games every team puts extra efforts in.

Back!
16-04-2012, 09:46:23
as I got drawn into it...



54 CL Q4 51 EL*Q4 50 EL*Q3 48 48 CW* ELGS
Lazio Udinese Roma Inter Napoli
22 v Lecce @ Chievo @ Juve @ Fiornt v Novara
25* @ Novara v Inter v Fiorent @ Udine @ Lecce
29 @ Udinese v Lazio v Napoli v Cesena @ Roma
02 v Siena @ Cesena @ Chievo @ Parma v Palermo
06 @ Atalanta v Genoa v Catania v Milan @ Bologna
13 v Inter @ Catania @ Cesena @ Lazio v Siena


As Juventus is virtually qualified for CL (they're 17pts ahed 4th place, they'd need to lose them'all...) Napoli is qualified in any case to EL thanks to Coppa Italia
The Juventus v Napoli final will be played after the league ends.
In case they lose, they'll get in at Q3 level *, with 4th ranked team advancing to GS and 5th to Q4 (* unless Napoli themselves get 4th or 5th)

Inter will have to play away @ the 2 teams they need to chase (Udinese & Lazio)
If they step up to the challenge, they'll reap double benefit, considering also the two will meet in the meanwhile and take away points each other

Back!
16-04-2012, 09:54:11
Dortmund now has a 7 point gap with 3 matches to go. It'll take the mother of all meltdowns to deny Dortmund the title.

Yes, and they had the toughest match, @ 3rd ranked team, while Bayern had an easy home one!

Schalke home defeat vs Dortumnd opened the fight for 3rd place
While only Stuttgart betinng Werder opened a bit of a gap in the EL berths race: none of the chasers won, most appalling was Wolfsburg home defeat vs Augsburg.

Back!
17-04-2012, 07:42:32
http://www.counterglow.com/forum/showpost.php?p=1038537&postcount=2

wow, giant-killers Wigan on a rush

they won @ Liverpool, v Stoke, then lost @ Chelsea, but promptly resumed their run beating ManU, and now winning @ Arsenal!

5 matches ago the table bottom read

28 Rovers
26 QPR
23 Bolton *
22 Wigan & Wolves

now it's

34 Wigan
31 QPR
29 Bolton **
28 Rovers
23 Wolves

* Bolton had already one game in hand (match @ Villa postponed because of Muamba), now they have two (v Spurs due to FA Cup)

___

at the top, Gunners risk to squander all they had built
after the recent slip @ QPR, now they add this home defeat v Wigan
all their chasers will play on May 2nd their FA-cup-postponed matches

Before the last 2 matches, Spurs will play 3 teams fighting to avoid the drop, while Gunners host Chelsea then play @ Stoke.

___

Now that we know the teams in FA Cup final, this helps clarify the race for EL
- should Liverpool win (or Chelsea qualifiy as 4th for CL), they'd have "two tickets" so they'd freee one berth for 6th team in the table
- should Chelsea win, they'd go to EL regardless and they'd grant EL berth to 6th placed team, in case they get 5th (or better)
Everton is trailing 10pts behind, so with 5 to go they'd effectively given up their EL hopes when they lost FA cup semifinal

Thus the race for CL GS/Q4 and EL 2 berths (GS/Q4/Q3 depending on Cup winner) will reward all 4 teams involved, Gunners, Spurs, Newcastle and Chelsea, none will be left out: it's only to be seen who gets what.

Funko
17-04-2012, 08:03:59
And Wigan only barely lost @ Chelsea, caught on the break in the last minute looking for a winner.

They looked great last night.

Back!
17-04-2012, 08:27:49
This Saturday we'll know whether Real will put the hands on the title, or if Barça bid will remain open

In the last month Barça closed in from 10 points adrift to just 4
With 4 more games to play after the Clàsico, should catalans fail to close the gap to 1 point on home ground, it would be a blow to their morale too and their efforts would be wirtually over


85 81
Real Madrid Barçelona
21 @ Barça v Real M
29 v Sevilla @ Rayo V
02 @ Ath.Bil v Màlaga
06 @ Granada v Espanyol
13 v Mallorca @ Betis

Behind them:

52 CLGS Valencia
51 CLQ4 Malaga
.
.
48 EL* Levante
.
46 EL* Osasuna
45 Atlético M., Sevilla, Espanyol, Getafe, Athl.Bilbao (EL*)

* Ath.Bilbao are qualified to EL regardless of the Cup result, which will only determine the round they and the other 2 EL teams will start from

a bit of a gap opened between CL and EL placements, but a whole bunch is pressing on just 1pt behind last EL berth
I'm not like preparing a 9 teams table now, so I'll wait one or two more turns

Over this weekend, 3 other direct clashes stand out:
Osasuna v Màlaga
Sevilla v Levante
Atlético M v Espanyol
we also have
Valencia v Betis Sevilla, who are behind the above bunch

Peculiar:
we have thus on the same matchday two cross-matches between the 4 cities with 2 (or more) teams

Barça-Real
Atlético-Espanyol

Sevilla-Levante
Valencia-Betis

:)

Back!
17-04-2012, 08:44:35
Twente dropped another two points and AZ lost against PSV, both in injury time. Unless Ajax start losing at home against relegation candidates and FC Groningen (shared worst team of 2012 so far :cry:), the title is pretty much secured.


64 Ajax
.
.
.
.
.
58 AZ, Feyenoord
57 Twente, PSV*, Heerenveen

Yes, with 6 points margin it looks like Lancers wrapped it
Only Twente can stop them, and that might not be enough

the fight behind them looks tho very close and exciting!

BTW I'll be leaving on 29th and get back the 7th, so please could you update here during that week

Mr. Bas
18-04-2012, 12:30:16
Lancers?

Fistandantilus
18-04-2012, 14:27:08
I'm not falling for that lame 100-0 attempt :p

Funko
18-04-2012, 14:28:59
Maybe only the Dutch have never heard that nickname?

Fistandantilus
18-04-2012, 16:28:43
So what's his excuse? Does he still count as a dutch? :p

Mr. Bas
18-04-2012, 18:01:17
It really was an honest question :). I've never heard of that nickname before. Dutch nicknames for Ajax tend to either be ridiculously positive (by their own fans) or verging on the antisemitic. (everybody else)

Fistandantilus
18-04-2012, 21:23:13
Antisemitic? :lol:

It's cause the team is named after a greek hero who was really good with his lance (btw Haecor cheated against him, trojan scum)

Back!
19-04-2012, 09:33:24
hmm, interesting!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ajax_Amsterdam


Full name Amsterdamsche Football Club Ajax NV
Nickname(s)
de Godenzonen (the sons of the Gods),
Ajacieden,
de Joden (the Jews),
de Amsterdammers (the Amsterdammers),
I Lancieri (The Lancers)


... the "Lancers" nickname is quoted in italian on english wiki....
???

and.... :eek:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ajax_Amsterdam#Jewish_connection

Mr. Bas
19-04-2012, 12:48:22
Yeah, I also just saw that - in Dutch, the Lancers name is never used, don't know about other countries beside Italy.

And indeed, Ajax has a long history of using Jews as a nom de guerre, despite the club not being officially Jewish nor having that many Jewish fans. And of course, when Ajax supporters refer to themselves as Jews, you can imagine that their rivals use anything to offend them, including many Holocaust references. If you think the quoted chant is a bit disjointed, that's because it is - it's not a chant, it's a random collection of snippets of chants and insults that don't really belong together. Note that these are also the more extreme ones, the vast majority of people would disapprove.

Basically, whenever Ajax plays a team like Feyenoord or ADO Den Haag, you'll be sure to hear some of these chants come by, together with outraged commentary in newspapers and on tv. Interesting story: last year, after ADO beat Ajax at home, ADO player and former hooligan Lex Immers was suspended for a couple of games because of being caught on tape singing some of the classic anti-Ajax songs on stage at some ADO celebration, most notable 'We gaan op jodenjacht' (We're going jew hunting).

Video? Video! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cCFgY6xyI98

The song's after 10 seconds of so, Immers is the blonde guy on the table, the black guy is Charlton Vicento (another ADO player), not sure about who the other is. Note the occasional nazi salute as well.

Fistandantilus
19-04-2012, 13:03:30
I didnt know about this jew thing!

Funko
19-04-2012, 13:37:20
The Lancers thing is almost never used here, dunno where I heard it (possibly from MoSe, remember him?)

Fistandantilus
19-04-2012, 13:47:53
Barely. I guess he's too busy winning insane amounts of money at poker.

Back!
26-04-2012, 10:39:06
83 80 65 CLGS 62 CLQ4 59 EL* 58 EL*(FA Cup)
dates ManUtd ManCity Arsenal Newcastle Spurs Chelsea
28-30 @ ManCity v ManUtd @ Stoke @ Wigan v Rovers v QPR
02 - - - @ Chelsea @ Bolton v Newcast
05-06 v Swansea @ Newcast v Norwich v ManCity @ Villa @ Liverpool
13 @ Sunderl v QPR @ W.Brom @ Everton v Fulham v Rovers


ManU let Everton equalise form 2 goals down
Now a home win in the upcoming Manchester derby would grant Citizens the provisional lead on goal difference!

Chelsea added new spice in the run for europe:
should they win CL in Munich vs home side (!) BUT without qualifying from the league, they'd qualify as holders and will push 3rd ranked in PL down to CL playoff and 4th ranked in PL down to EL instead


all the above is now also striclty linked with the relegation battle, as Bolton sucked Villans in it by overturning in few minutes their postponed match

36 34 34 33 31
Villa QPR Wigan Bolton Rovers
28-29 @ WBA @ Chels v Newcl @ Sundl @ Spurs
02 - - - v Spurs -
06-07 v Spurs v Stoke @ Rovrs v WBA v Wigan
13 @ Nrwch @ MCity v Wolvs @ Stoke @ Chelsea

Fistandantilus
26-04-2012, 13:38:14
Inter will have to play away @ the 2 teams they need to chase (Udinese & Lazio)
If they step up to the challenge, they'll reap double benefit, considering also the two will meet in the meanwhile and take away points each other

One down one to go :cute:

Back!
26-04-2012, 14:31:35
55 CL Q4 54 EL* 52 EL* 52 EL* 50
Lazio Napoli Udinese Inter Roma
29 @ Udines @ Roma v Lazio v Cesena v Napoli
02 v Siena v Palrm @ Cesen @ Parma @ Chievo
06 @ Atalnt @ Bolgn v Genoa v Milan v Catania
13 v Inter v Siena @ Catan @ Lazio @ Cesena


while Cesena gave up and it's now officilly relegated, Novara managed to stop dead Lazio. (and will host juve next....)

Fiorentina also managed to keep Inter to a draw and to win in Roma

Should now the home sides win this weekend, we'd have 3 teams tied for CL 3rd place...

it's to be noted, that should Inter really advance to CL, they'd help to knock down AC Milan from Pot1 in the Group Seeding...

BTW, IIRC there was already a Lazio v Inter on last matchday in 2002, but it was May 5th, not the 13th
maybe the 13th will be luckier...
:cute:

Back!
27-04-2012, 08:01:56
well, with 7 points ahead and 4 games to play (*),


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011–12_La_Liga#Positions_by_round
Note: Due to the change in the order of rounds caused by the strike in which Round 1 was moved between Rounds 19 and 21, and Round 20 between the Rounds 36 and 37, this section is ordered until the celebration of matchday 20 (2 May 2012) with the order of rounds by its chronological order. At the end of matchday 20, another table of Positions by round will be added in number order as it will be the official in many publications.

Real Madrid practically secured the title, after their last one in 2008 and 3 seasons won by their catalan rivals
___

as for the fight for the remaining european football berths

55 CL GS Valencia
.
.
52 CL Q4 Màlaga
.
.
49 EL*Q4 Levante
48 EL*Q3 Ath.Bilbao°^, Atl.Madrid^
47 Osasuna
46 Sevilla
45 Espanyol, Getafe
.
43 Mallorca
42 Betis

° Domestic Cup finalist, grants an EL berth either as CW or as Losing Finalist to Barça already qualified to CL
^ Europa League finalists: one of the two will take a berth in EL GS

http://kassiesa.home.xs4all.nl/bert/uefa/index.html#el
The title-holder qualifies directly for the group stage of the Europa League.
If the title holder already qualified for a qualifying round of the Europa League the total number of teams of that association does not change.

The title holder spot in the Europa League is not used if the title holder qualified for the Champions League. The unused title holder spot and other empty spots are filled in the Europa League with priority for cup winners


the two At[h]léticos are currently tied for 6th place
- should Bilbao win EL, they'd gain "two tickets", thus one would be freed and two teams from the league ranking (other than Bilbao) would advance to EL
- should Atl.Madrid win EL, they'd get in as Holders, Bilbao would get in from Copa del Rey, and only one berth will be allocated from league ranking, even in case the Atleticos should slip below 6th place. Should instead either (or both) qualify for CL, overtaking Màlaga (and Valencia too), they'd free the respective berths for league ranking (which in such cases will tho likely go to Malaga and Valencia :))

____

I can't take time to format the table now, so I'll only point out outstanding matches for the europa race

this sunday Màlaga v Valencia will help defining the goals of the chasers pack
either Valencia will secure CL group stage leaving Malaga to a close fight for CL preliminary, or the two will be paired in 3rd place 3-4 points clear of the teams behind

Valencia will host then Osasuna,
while Màlaga will visit Barça and then Atl.M.

Levante start with 2 easy matches, then will play @ Mallorca (presumably out of the race at that point) and v Bilbao in the end, with the home advantage should there be still something at stake between them. It would be a pity for the season surprise Valencia 2nd team to lose it all in the end, after they had topped the legue after 9 matches, and were still 4th only 6 matches ago

Bilbao will go to desperate Zaragoza, then host Real and Getafe before visiting Levante
Osasuna have easy matches apart the abovementioned one @ Valencia. Their hopes will be increased if Bilbao win EL.
Sevilla have a longer run to make up, starting it @ Bernabéu doesn't make it easier
Espanyol and Getafe start even further down, with the latters facing a slightly better schedule

Fistandantilus
29-04-2012, 21:26:35
Should now the home sides win this weekend, we'd have 3 teams tied for CL 3rd place...


Make it four :p

I think Napoli are favourites at this point altho I don't know what happens when more than two teams are tied at the end.

Back!
29-04-2012, 22:55:53
according to wiki, first h2h recotds then goal diff and goal scored
atm this would give Napoli (who going to CL would free 6th place for EL), Udinese (to EL GD), Inter then Lazio who'd have thus slipped from 3rd to 6th.
Probably Lazio & Inter are penalized now in this tied ranking as they still jave to play their h2h.
I doubt anyway all 4 will still be tied in the end.
Don't forget that craxy Roma could still win 3 and threaten whoever slips

Back!
07-05-2012, 10:39:49
Levante start with 2 easy matches, then will play @ Mallorca (presumably out of the race at that point) and v Bilbao in the end, with the home advantage should there be still something at stake between them. It would be a pity for the season surprise Valencia 2nd team to lose it all in the end, after they had topped the legue after 9 matches, and were still 4th only 6 matches ago

Bilbao will go to desperate Zaragoza, then host Real and Getafe before visiting Levante

sorry for the absence, I'm sure you didn't notice

all decided for the first 3 spots, Màlaga qill have to defend their CL Playoff berth

Levante let Mallorca reach and overtake them
Zaragoza incredibily kept open the relegation battle

more details before last weekend starts

Back!
09-05-2012, 08:02:19
86 +63 ManCity v QPR
86 +55 Man Utd @ Sunderland

after winning @ Newcastle, "only" QPR stand in the way of Mancini's ManCity

CLGS* 67 +24 Arsenal @ WBA
CLQ4* 66 +23 Tottenham v Fulham
ELQ4* 65 + 7 Newcastle @ Everton

Gunners slipped v Norwich, but Newcastle couldn't manage to stop City's title run to profit from it, neither did Spurs @ Villa

Chelsea had secured an EL GS place as FA Cup winner, but then got run over in the league "rematch" at Anfield, relinquishing their last hopes to get to CL thru the league.
They can get in as Holders tho: this would make the above allotment shift down, because of the 4 teams per country cap. 3rd place would only get CL preliminaries, and 4th place would move down to EL GS

38 -14 Villa @ Norwich
37 -22 QPR @ ManCity
35 -31 Bolton @ Stoke

here too I waited to see the Blackburn - Wigan result
a home defeat sent Rovers down and Wigan safe, greatly simplifying the last stage of the relegation battle
Now Villans are virtually safe (they had to stop Spurs run to 3rd place in the process)
Can QPR rule out a Wanderers away win @ Stoke? They'd really need a point to be safe, but ManCity can't afford to concede it now that they're one step from the title.

Back!
09-05-2012, 09:38:11
55 CLQ4 Málaga v Gijon
.
53 ELQ4 Atlético Madrid @ Villarreal
52 ELQ3 Mallorca @ Real M.
52 ---- Levante v Athletic Bilbao
51 ---- Osasuna @ Santander
.
49 EL* Athletic Bilbao @ Levante
49 ---- Sevilla @ Espanyol

for tie-breakers we have to check h2h records first

Malaga-ATM 0-0, ATM-Malaga 2-0, in case Malaga draw, Atlético would be ahead for CL with a win

Malaga-Mallorca 3-1, Mallorca-Malaga 0-1
Malaga-Levante 1-0, Levante-Malaga 3-0
In case Malaga lose and ATM don't win, the andalusian would be ahead in a tie at 52pts with Mallorca only, and behind in a tie with Levante only
Mallorca-Levante 1-0, Levante-Mallorca 0-0
a 3way tie would still favor Malaga for last CL spot
in summary

Malaga will lose CL if
-they don't win while ATM do
-they lose and Levante win, while Mallorca don't
Mallorca can't get to CL

Malaga host Gijon, who are 2nd to bottom and only need to win to keep the faintest hopes to beat the drop (see below). That's utterly unlikely so the above is merely for the theory.

atm ATM raised themselves to 5th place, which'd grant them EL GS if Bilbao don't win the domestic Cup v Barça.
They can also open on their own the way to EL GS as Holders, by beating Bilbao in EL Final.
In the worst case (Bilbao win both cups), they can still theoretically fight for CL playoff (discussed above) and more realistically get to EL Q4 or Q3 by getting at least 6th in the league. Beating Villarreal ATM would assure 5th palce at least. But the yellow submarine are not safe if they lose, and eventually not even if they draw. OTOH with just a draw ATM might risk to get overtaken by both Mallorca and Levante an lose EL
ATM-Mallorca 1-1, Mallorca-ATM 2-1
ATM-Levante 3-2, Levante-ATM 2-0
if ATM lose and either or both the chasers draw, they'd be behind in h2h individually and in a 3way too
ATM-Osasuna 0-0, Osasuna-ATM 0-1
at least if they draw they'd be ahead in h2h vs Osasuna

Osasuna can already mark the 3 points v derelict Racing, so one EL place will be assigned at least with 54pts, and the 2nd place with no less than 53.
For this reason I won't discuss in detail Bilbao and Sevilla chances, who can only hope to tie Mallorca and Levante at 52 for 6th place if Osasuna don't win
OTOH will Mallorca be allowed to bring away points from the title celebrating Bernabeu? imho that would spoil the show, Mallorca will very likely have to let go the just reached 6th place

Relegation
it might be interesting as it involves Villarreal formerly in Champions Leauge, and because it influences the CL/EL places run

42 Granada @ Rayo
41 Villarreal v Atlético Madrid
40 Rayo V. v Granada
40 Zaragoza @ Getafe
37 S.Gijon @ Málaga

2 of the above will go down

Gijon need to win in Malaga (who'd risk that way to lose CL) and hope that both Rayo & Zara lose
Gijon-Rayo 2-1, Rayo-Gijon 1-3
Gijon-Zara 1-2, Zara-Gijon 2-2
Rayo-Zara 0-0, Zara-Rayo 1-2
incredibly, in that 3-way tie they'd be safe and the other two would go down

Should Villarreal lose, ther'd be a relegation tie @41p if neither Rayo nor Zaragoza lose
Villa-Rayo 2-0, Rayo-Villa 0-2
Villa-Zara 2-2, Zara-Villa 2-1
Villarreal are ahead Rayo and behind Zaragoza
in a 3-way, Rayo would be the one to go down
So Villarreal can only be relegated if they lose, Rayo win and Zaragoza don't lose. If they draw, to get overtaken by the two below would entail that Rayo beat Granada, and Villarreal are ahead there too. (that would also be the only case in which Granada go down)
Villa-Granada 3-1, Granada-Villa 1-0
That's to be taken into account for the Villarreal v Atlético Madrid match.
Villarreal had a troubled season, but ATM must expect a team fighting to get that safety point

Back!
11-05-2012, 12:54:37
so, Atlético Madrid won the Europa League
This grants them access to next season Europa League Group Stage.
The Copa del Rey EL berth goes to Athletic Bilbao
This leaves only one berth available, to be disputed between Mallorca, Levante and Osasuna
Should ATM unlikely snatch the CL Q4 berth from Malaga, the unused TH EL berth they'd free would go to Malaga anyway

Back!
11-05-2012, 13:26:45
with the Scudetto assigned one match in advance, and the relegation battle virtually decided, the remaining focus is on the race for CL preliminary berth, and the starting round in EL for the other 3 places

61 CL Q4 Udinese @ Catania
.
59 EL* Lazio v Inter
58 EL* Napoli v Siena
58 EL* Inter @ Lazio

Udinese is a wisely administered club, who keeps financially solid by finding and developing young talents who they then yearly sell to big teams. See Alexis Sanchez last year (and Inler to Napoli)
Catania savoured for a while the dream to get in Europe, now all they fight for is pride and their points record in Serie A.
Udinese are favorites to get CL (where this season they got out in playoff v Arsenal, with more than a few regrets), but a surprise by Catania is not to rule out

Should they draw, only Lazio can reach them at 62, but Udinese would still be ahead in h2h.
Thus the other 3 clubs hopes to get CL rely in a Udinese unlikely home defeat

h2h tiebreakers

Udin-Napoli 2-2, Napoli-Udin 2-0
Udin-Inter 1-3, Inter-Udin 0-1
Inter-Napoli 0-3, Napoli-Inter 1-0

Udinese would be behind both in individual ties and in a 3-way vs Napoli and/or Inter
In a 3-way it's Napoly who'd be ahead
So Inter need:
- Udinese home defeat
- to beat Lazio in Rome
- AND that Napoli fail to beat Siena in S.Paolo
( winning @ Lazio looks like the easiest part! :lol: )

Back!
11-05-2012, 13:48:01
Both the Olympiques now won the cups, Lyon will go to EL Group Stage, and Marseille to EL Q3. They have no chance to make their position better, so there's practically one EL berth remaining to be assigned.

The title race is unexpectedly still somehow open, after PSG seemed to have thrown it away.

76 Montpellier - v Lille, @ Auxerre
.
.
73 PSG - v Rennes, @ Lorient
.
71 Lille - @ Montpellier, v Nancy

France don't use h2h tiebreakers, and their goal diffs are also all very close.
Montpellier advantage might look decisive, but this sunday nite matches could either seal it or reopen it all

The last EL spot is to be disputed by these 4 teams

57 Rennes - @ PSG, v Dijon
57 S.Etienne - @ Nancy, v Bordeaux
.
55 Bordeaux - v Lorient, @ S.Etienne
55 Toulouse - @ Dijon, v Ajaccio

the relegation battle is a big tangle, with 7 teams in 4 points and Lorient & Valenciennes just above
to be noted the dire position of Auxerre, a club who played in europe very recently: they'd better win in Marseille now, as they will then host the table leaders in last match

Back!
23-05-2012, 11:30:00
sorry for the lack of updates....

I'll do some review with stats, when I'll find the time

England, Spain, Germany, Italy and Portugal i.e. the 5 top countries in the uefa ranking
http://kassiesa.home.xs4all.nl/bert/uefa/data/method4/crank2012.html
in those leagues, the Top Scorer did not win the title

I wonder whether this is a rare occurrence.

The list goes on with 7th and 8th Russia and Netherlands

In France (6th), there are 2 tied topscorers, Giroud who won the Ligue 1, and Nené who got 2nd with PSG. so we could say that here too there is one topscorer who didn't win.

Funko
23-05-2012, 11:38:19
You mean the player that scored the most goals not the team? In England Man City scored the most goals and won the title?

I think mostly the top goalscoring player doesn't win the premiership, I'll get those stats for you.

Funko
23-05-2012, 11:42:04
Yr Player Team Won PL?
93 Sheringham Forest No
94 Cole Nwcstl No
95 Shearer Bburn Yes
96 Shearer Bburn No
97 Shearer Nwcstl No
98 Dublin Cvntry No
99 Hasslbnk Leeds No
00 Phillips Sndrlnd No
01 Hasslbnk Chelsea No
02 Henry Arsenal Yes
03 van Nistl ManU Yes
04 Henry Arsenal Yes
05 Henry Arsenal No
06 Henry Arsenal No
07 Drogba Chelsea No
08 Ronaldo ManU Yes
09 Anelka Chelsea No
10 Drogba Chelsea Yes
11 Berbatov ManU Yes
12 Van Persie Arsenal No


In each case the year is the year the season ended.

Out of 20 seasons the top scorer has only won the league 7 times and most in the last 11 seasons.

In the last 10 years it's 50/50.

Funko
23-05-2012, 11:44:20
Look at how dominant Shearer and Henry were in their peaks.

Funko
23-05-2012, 11:45:18
After collating that I found this that has it all anyway. Grr.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_English_football_champions#Premier_League_ .281992.E2.80.93present.29

Back!
23-05-2012, 11:47:01
yeah, with "scorer" I mean a person, otherwise I'd have said "scoring team"... (am I wrong?)

well, I thought it odd that it occurred in all the top leagues...

Back!
23-05-2012, 11:49:23
After collating that I found this that has it all anyway. Grr.


lol, I much appreciated your table anyway!
:)

Back!
23-05-2012, 11:51:15
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Spanish_football_champions

backtracking at sight:

topscorer won La Lìga in

10, 07, 06, 01, 95, 94, 90, 88, 87, 86 (then nothing till 70)

that's 6 times in the las two decades
the Hugo Sanchez era was an exception

Funko
23-05-2012, 11:51:46
Yes, was interesting enough for me to put some effort into checking. :D

if you get the evidence from the other leagues we can see how common it is. Probably last 10 years is good enough?

Team or player could both be the top scorers. The only indication would be if there was a plural it would mean a team, but because you were talking about multiple leagues it was already plural.

Manchester City are top scorers.
Robin van Persie and Lionel messi are top scorers.

Isn't English great?

Funko
23-05-2012, 11:52:18
lol, I much appreciated your table anyway!
:)

My table is an easier to read format. :)

Fistandantilus
23-05-2012, 12:02:47
Just to mention Hubner was the Serie A top scorer in 2002, playing for my local team. We got relegated :lol:

Back!
23-05-2012, 12:11:38
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Italian_football_champions

topscoring player won Serie A in

09, 04, 02 that's just 3 in last in 20 seasons!
then 92, 91, 89, 84 (4 in 8)
further back:
76, 74, 71, 70, 68, 65, 64, 62, 60, 58, 55, 52, 51
13 in 26! and not with a dominant striker like H.Sanchez

in PL, it's occurring more in recent seasons
In SerieA, it occurred in average every other season for 3 decades post-war

Back!
23-05-2012, 12:17:15
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_German_football_champions

the LAZY GERMANS don't report the topscoring player's team !!!

09 Grafite, Wolfsburg
08 Toni, Bayern
04 Ailton, Werder
03 Élber, Bayern
02 Amoroso, Dortmund
---
92 Fritz Walter, Stuttgart

So, 5 times in last 10 seasons, but nothing in the previous 10

Fistandantilus
23-05-2012, 12:27:50
The even more lazy french don't even list the topscorer :p

Back!
23-05-2012, 12:29:35
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_French_football_champions

the frogs don't even report the player... :rolleyes:

:lol:
X-post...

12 Giroud, Montpellier (Nene PSG tied)
11 Moussa Sow, Lille
10 Niang, Marseille
-
08 Benzema, Lyon
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
99 Wiltord, Bordeux
-
-
-
95 Loko, Nantes
-
93* Boksic and OM won, but Marseille got stripped of the title because of the Tapie scandal

that's 6 or 7 in tha last 2 decades, with an 8 year hiatus in the middle and 4 in the last 5!

Back!
23-05-2012, 13:00:03
if you get the evidence from the other leagues we can see how common it is. Probably last 10 years is good enough?


E S G I F
12 . . . . Y
11 Y . . . Y
10 Y Y . . Y
09 . . Y Y .
08 Y . Y . Y
07 . Y . . .
06 . Y . . .
05 . . . . .
04 Y . Y Y .
03 Y . Y . .
02 Y . Y Y .
01 . Y . . .
00 . . . . .
99 . . . . Y
98 . . . . .
97 . . . . .
96 . . . . .
95 Y Y . . Y
94 . Y . . .
93 . . . . y
E S G I F


this could also get read the other way, that often a team doesn't need to have the top scorer to win a league title

Back!
23-05-2012, 13:03:11
you'd say that in Spain it'd be easier, seeing as how it's a 2 clubs vs the rest league, and the 2 clubs mark 50% more points and goals than any other team.
but it's not so there either....

Funko
23-05-2012, 13:03:25
Yeah, you could postulate that a team that is reliant on one player for most of their goals is less likely to win the title than a team with goalscorers throughout the team?

Funko
23-05-2012, 13:05:05
So in 7/20 years the top 4 leagues have all had a title winning side that didn't contain the top goalscorer. And in 5/20 all 5 leagues managed it. So it's not that unusual really.

Fistandantilus
23-05-2012, 13:11:07
Yeah, you could postulate that a team that is reliant on one player for most of their goals is less likely to win the title than a team with goalscorers throughout the team?

Sounds like a good explanation.

Back!
23-05-2012, 13:14:23
true, but it became unusual in the current decade

Last time it occurred 7 seasons ago for the Top 4

Funko
23-05-2012, 13:17:44
Now I am wondering:

How often did the team that scored the most goals win the title?

That one you'd assume was a closer match to the title winner, but I'm sure not always true.