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MOBIUS
07-09-2010, 15:58:04
What no thread!?

Good to see Wales off to their traditional start to a major football tournament...:bash:

Now they're talking about getting Ryan Giggs in as the new Wales manager now that Tosh has said he's resigning...:clueless:

Fistandantilus
07-09-2010, 18:35:59
What about Euro 2011?

http://www.uefa.com/under21/news/newsid=1524722.html
:cute:

Mr. Bas
07-09-2010, 20:31:48
We won! Portugal lost! France is shit again! Liechtenstein is doing a good job!

Funko
08-09-2010, 07:54:20
Switzerland away was billed as our toughest test of qualifying. :lol: Shows what a shit group we are in. Anything less than 24 points would be embarrassing.

Back!
08-09-2010, 09:47:08
What about Euro 2011?

http://www.uefa.com/under21/news/newsid=1524722.html
:cute:

we already have a one-man-thread about that

http://www.counterglow.com/forum/showthread.php?t=44438

MOBIUS
08-09-2010, 09:48:14
What about Euro 2011?

http://www.uefa.com/under21/news/newsid=1524722.html
:cute:

Yeah, all we had to do was not lose...:rolleyes:

I could have sworn a news report said that even if we lost, it would have had to be by at least 4-0, so I'm guessing a whole bunch of other results went the wrong way for us and what was a statistical unlikelihood reared its ugly head (edit: this was clearly wrong!)...:(

In 2008 we did make it to the playoffs, losing 5-4 on aggregate to England. Always so near yet so far...

They keep going on about this nonsense that Ryan Giggs should become the new Wales manager, when clearly it should be Brian Flynn of the U21 team that should be given the job.

Ironically for Welsh supporters, their best chance is to hope that England defeat all opposition before them (apart from Wales!), so that we can sneak into 2nd place behind them - which I do still think is possible.

Fistandantilus
08-09-2010, 10:06:07
Giggs has like zero experience as a coach yes?

MOBIUS
08-09-2010, 10:26:51
Jesjes, inderdeed - therefore he is a perfect candidate!:bouncmsk:

MOBIUS
08-09-2010, 10:33:02
Whereas Brian Flynn has almost got the Wales U21 team to the finals in the last two attempts - and this is without the majority of Wales' best U21 eligible players who are fast tracked into the seniors - just imagine what he could do if he was allowed to call up the likes of Gareth Bale, Jack Collison and Aaron Ramsey on a regular basis for his games!:eek:

Also, he's nurtured the talents of most of the senior team to break into it and knows them really well. Not to mention the fact that his diary is suddenly free, thanks to Italy...:cute:

Back!
08-09-2010, 10:36:57
Yeah, all we had to do was not lose...:rolleyes:


WRONG, you could even lose by one, but scoring!
1-2, 2-3 and so on would have seen you win the group and eliminate Italy!

:D :p

with 0-1, you'd have needed 2 of the following:
- England not winning
- Scotland to draw or Belarus not winning (Scots scored the winner at 89', Belarus their at 76')
- Israel beating Montenegro by 2 less goals (e.g 3-0 instead of 5-0, and they scored their 4th at 77')
so you can say that you were in as RU until 77'

Funko
08-09-2010, 10:46:06
Mattia Mustacchio doesn't appear to have a mustache. :(

MOBIUS
08-09-2010, 11:45:24
Despite matching overwhelming favourites Italy in points in Group 3 – as well as bettering their goal difference – the head-to-head rule went against Wales thanks to a single goal at the Liberty Stadium a year ago.

Wales won that contest 2-1 – but the Italians’ away goal proved costly, with a best runners-up spot also out of reach.

To make matters even more difficult to swallow, Wales were denied their big opportunity to pile the pressure on Pierluigi Casiraghi’s junior Azzurri when a blatant foul on Andy King inside the area was overlooked.

http://www.walesonline.co.uk/footballnation/football-news/2010/09/08/brian-flynn-in-frame-to-take-over-wales-91466-27222753/

Stupid head-to-head rule - we had a better goal difference!!!

Like last time where we actually topped our group but STILL had to play a double header playoff vs England... :(

Still, it does mean Brian's available for the top job now.

Funko
13-09-2010, 15:22:55
So you'll be happy with this?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/league_of_wales/8989540.stm

MOBIUS
15-09-2010, 10:22:09
Yes.

Bulgaria at home is definitely winnable and I'd take a draw at Switzerland.

The problem with Toshack was that he was a massively divisive manager who insisted on doing things his way and alienated a lot of senior players in the process. These next two games need everyone in Welsh football to wipe the slate clean and just concentrate on getting these two results. That means accepting Giggs' offer to play for the team again, and coaxing Simon Davies and, dare I say it, maybe even Robbie Savage out of retirement/exile...

Then come the new year, players like Ramsey and Collison will return and hopefully continue the rich promise they'd both shown before their injuries.

Back!
22-09-2010, 13:56:47
Bulgaria at home is definitely winnable.

but now you have to face Lothar!

Matthääääääääus!

lol

MOBIUS
08-10-2010, 22:29:02
Jesus. Two games played and our latest campaign is already over before it really began... :rolleyes:

Back!
10-10-2011, 11:34:27
one year hiatus

my, this is the top continental competition for national football teams, and it drove such interest *here*!

Back!
10-10-2011, 11:40:54
tomorrow the final qualification matches will be played

a few verdicts are still open

Wales can take pride in their respect for the competition sportmanship spirit:
albeit already eliminated, by defeating Switzerland they made possible for Montenegro to ensure a playoff spot with one game in hand, thanks to Delibašić added time equaliser vs England
:D
Now Montenegrins can lose tomorrow evening in Basel with no consequences, as they're 4 points clear ahead the Swiss

Fistandantilus
10-10-2011, 12:29:49
one year hiatus

my, this is the top continental competition for national football teams, and it drove such interest!

:confused: It does.
I'm still not sure why so many englishmen hate it tho. The "I wish this is over quickly so we can return to watch proper football" comments are all over the place.

Even the piece by the secret fooballer on the guardian where he compares playing for England with having sex with the queen is quite surprising.

Funko
10-10-2011, 13:18:07
We tend to get much higher quality football to watch every week in the Premiership / Champions League.

I enjoy the international matches, but the international schedule does seem crazy, and it is tough to get that excited about an away match in Moldova or wherever. Qualification is a bit of a no-win for us. We expect to qualify, and if we don't it's a disaster, but there's no excitement about the prospect of qualification.

Funko
10-10-2011, 13:20:29
From the secret footballer's point of view, I can absolutely see how playing for England is utterly thankless. Unless you actually win a tournament you are going to get no end of abuse and scrutiny.

Compare and contrast the difference between England getting a draw away against a decent, well organised but lower ranked team and what you get when ManU or Chelsea or someone get an away draw in a match. It's like all perspective goes out of the window.

Back!
10-10-2011, 13:25:55
a review

GrA
Q GERMANY
2nd 15 Belgium @Germany
3rd 14 Turkey vAzerbaijan
in case of a tie at 15 (Turks failing to beat Azers?!?) Turkey will qualify to playoffs
Azers lost all their away matches, including in Kazakhstan
Belgium need to win in Germany (already qualified) to be sure to get to playoffs

GrB
R 20(17) RUSSIA vAndorra
2nd 18(12) Eire vArmenia
3rd 17 Armenia @Eire
Russia are ahead both Eire and Armenia in h2h. They just need 1pt vs Andorra to qualify as group Winners.
In case they lose v Andorra (!!!) and Eire defeat Armenia, they'd qualify anyway as Best Runner-Up, unless Sweden beat qualified Netherlands OR Denmark & Portugal draw
Barring odds-busting Russian slips, Eire just need to avoid home defeat vs Armenia to get into Playoffs (a win wouldn't give them BRU spot anyway)

GrC
Q ITALY
2nd 16 Estonia, no match to play
3rd 15 Serbia @Slovenia
Estonia are ahead in h2h, so Srbija need to win in Slovenia to take the Playoff spot

GrD
1st 20 FRANCE vBosnia
2nd 19 BOSNIA @France
either runnerup will gain at best 14pts, not enough to avoid playoffs
so it's France qualified and Bosnia to Playoffs, unless the latter win at Stade de France

GrE
Q NETHERLANDS
R 21(15) SWEDEN vNetherlands
Sweden lead h2h records v Hungary, so they'd be runner-up even by losing. Which defuses any potential "soft-play" accusations by magyars in case the dutch take a rest in their last match after winning all their previous ones.
A win will qualify Sweden as BRU. A draw could still do, depending tho on favorable results by DEN/POR and GRE/CRO

GrF
1st 21(15) GREECE @Georgia
2nd 19(13) CROATIA vLatvia
with 1pt Greece will win the group as they lead Croatia in h2h. Should they unexpectedly lose, they'll have to go thru Playoffs.
Should Greece get the needed point(s), Croatia can still hope to directly qualify as BRU with (16)pts, provided favorable results converge from SWE and DEN/POR groups

GrG
Q ENGLAND
P MONTENEGRO (can't get BRU)

GrH
1st 16 PORTUGAL @Denmark
1st 16 DENMARK vPortugal
3rd 13 Norway vCyprus
Should the two leaders draw, Portugal would win the group as they won the home leg, and Danes would be favorite to qualify as BRU with 17pts unless Sweden win.
Beating Cyprus, Norway may only hope to overtake a losing Portugal to get to Playoffs, and they'd need to overcome a huge combined goal difference too.
Denmark are instead certain to be at least runner-up even in defeat, making Norway result moot if they lose to Portugal.
None of the 3 would realistically hope go get thru as BRU with 16pts, unless Sweden lose at home to Holland.

GrI
Q SPAIN
2nd 11 Scotland @Spain
3rd 10 Czech R. @Lithuania
In case Scots lose in Spain, Czechs only need a draw to take Playoff spot from them.
Same as Holland, but on their home turf: will Spain concede, or anyway play their last match in a softer way, after they won them all so far? Scotland will have to fight hard to keep their playoff spot. Of course a win in Lithuantia is not granted for Czechs either, but look much more likely.


ATM:

QUALIFIED

GERMANY
Russia*
ITALY
France (Bosnia)
NETHERLANDS
Greece (Croatia)
ENGLAND
Portugal/Denmark
SPAIN

(* can't imagine them losing to Andorra)

to Playoffs:

Turkey/Belgium (given fixtures, I hold the former as favourite)
Eire(Armenia)
Serbia/Estonia (NOT granted yet for Serbs)
Bosnia(France)
SWEDEN
CROATIA(Greece)
Montenegro
DENMARK/Portugal (Norway)
CzechR./Scotland

Favourites (or fighting) to direclty qualify as BRU: Sweden, Denmark/Portugal, Croatia

the same UEFA Ranking which will be used to seed the final tournament groups draw, will also be used to seed the qualification playoff draw to be held this thursday Oct 13th
http://www.world-results.net/uefa/ranking.html#2011 (provisional)

According to the above predictions

10 Sweden / 8 Croatia (9 Greece)
12 Denmark (7 Portugal)
13 Serbia*
15 Eire**

16 Bosnia°
18 CzechR. (24 Scotland)
19 Turkey (32 Belgium)
33 Montenegro


° 11 France
**36 Armenia
*38 Estonia

Will Eire manage to get seeded this time?
It would be fun should France lose to Bosnia, get seeded as runner-up, pushing Eire in the unseeded pot, and then draw them for a rematch!
:D

Funko
10-10-2011, 13:30:32
Spain's 3rd team would thrash Scotland. Scotland can only hope Lithuania beat the Czechs.

Back!
10-10-2011, 16:13:34
LOL, I read your post as "Spain's 3D dream"
:lol:

Back!
10-10-2011, 16:43:27
I report UEFA qualifiers history, starting 1998
(earlier would make difficult to track the disssolution of Russia and Yugo, I already made an exception counting Yugo 98 and 2K under Serbia)

I mixed Euro and WC qualifiers, albeit the formats have been sometimes different it better shows continuity in performances imho

T= Title holders, H= Hosts
Q= Qualified
R= directly as Runner-up , P= thru Playoffs
r=eliminated as RU (no po), p= lost playoffs
bold = won tournament

for current E12 I report lowercase q r & p where the final position is yet to be determined (of course q and r stand for potential Q and R)


W98 E00 W02 E04 W06 E08 W10 E12
Italy P Q Q Q Q Q Q Q
Germany Q Q P Q H R Q Q
France H Q T Q Q R P q/p
Spain Q Q Q P P Q Q Q
England Q P Q Q Q - Q Q
Netherl Q H - P Q R Q Q
Portugal - R Q H Q R P qrp
Denmark Q P Q Q - - Q qrp
Sweden - Q Q Q R R - r/p
Croatia P - Q P Q Q - qrp
CzechRep - Q p Q P Q - p?
Serbia P Q - - Q - Q p?
Romania Q Q p - - Q - -
Poland - - Q - R Q - H
Greece - - - Q - Q P q/p
Switzerl - - - Q P H Q -
Russia p - Q P - R p q/r
Turkey - P P p p R - p?
Slovenia - P P p - - P -
Norway Q Q - p p - r p??
Bulgaria Q - - Q - - - -
Belgium P H P - - - - p?
Ukraine p p p - Q - p H
Slovakia - - - - p - Q -
Austria Q - p - - H - -
Scotland R p - p - - - p?
Eire p p P - - - p p?
Latvia - - - P - - - -
Bosnia - - - - - - p q/p
Monteneg - - - - - - - p
Wales - - - p - - - -
Israel - p - - - - - -
Hungary p - - - - - - -
Armenia - - - - - - - p?
Estonia - - - - - - - p?


I sorted the teams in my mind more or less by achievements, feel free to object
I think a Q is worth a bit more than an R, and more than a P, although the result is the same. Also as H you had one less real test to face.
France for WC 2002 were the last holders who didn't have to qualify.
A p is better than nothing, but can be sadder, see Eire wo collected 3.
The playoff they won for WC02 was an internationa one, vs Iran!

Back!
10-10-2011, 16:58:51
the chart puts in evidence as

- Sweden and Croatia have a good chance to take part after one "season" absence (at least in playoffs and seeded)

- Czech and Turkey have a little stronger effort to put in for the same goal, and without the favor of seeding

- for Belgium and Scotland it's a longer absence, and a longer shot: they'd need to overturn the odds, or the two above to fail

- Montenegro already secured their debut in playoffs.
- whereas Armenia could reach it winning in Eire. Estonia would only gain it as spectator, thanks to Serbia failure

- Swiss, Slovenia and Slovakia failed to confirm their qualification for the recent WC
- Romania weren't in WC10, but were there in E08, and are already out from this one

____


did all this whet a bit more interest in the varying fortunes of euro football teams?
Let's check it wednesday
:cute:

Back!
12-10-2011, 07:33:04
So!

Germany and Spain did not lift foot off pedal, too bad for Belgium and Scotland, who saw Turkey and Czechs take the playoff spot from them at last match, as expected

Holland did try the same to stop Sweden. The game was hard fought and the lead changed three times. At the beginning of 2nd half, the Swede went down, and then within 3 minutes they regained the lead with 2 goals.
Had they just draw, Portugal would have been the Best Runner Up in their place, with a better goal difference by 1 (or even if C.Ronaldo hadn't put in a late one, they'd have been BRU the same thanks to 1 more goal scored).

Croatia and Bosnia joined Montenegro in the playoffs.
Already eliminated Slovenia dragged down Serbia with them, instead. :lol:


It would be fun should France lose to Bosnia, get seeded as runner-up, pushing Eire in the unseeded pot, and then draw them for a rematch!


:lol: ALMOST!

I managed to watch both halves endings
In the first I saw Dzeko's superb goal, which sent France in disarray, a ghost side for the remaining minutes to halftime. M'vila is the worst defender in the world.
In 2nd I switched back to it right after Nasri's equalising penalty. I think in that stint there were 5 goal chances for France and 3 for Bosnia.
I was jumping on my chair yelling!
Of course against France.
:D
After what they did in last WC10 playoffs, they'd have deserved to be sent thru it again :p

Back!
12-10-2011, 08:37:28
W98 E00 W02 E04 W06 E08 W10 E12
Italy P Q Q Q Q Q Q Q
Spain Q Q Q P P Q Q Q
Germany Q Q P Q H R Q Q
France H Q T Q Q R P Q
England Q P Q Q Q - Q Q
Denmark Q P Q Q - - Q Q
Netherl Q H - P Q R Q Q
Sweden - Q Q Q R R - R
Portugal - R Q H Q R P >p*
Croatia P - Q P Q Q - >p*
CzechRep - Q p Q P Q - >p*
Greece - - - Q - Q P Q
Serbia P Q - - Q - Q -
Russia p - Q P - R p Q
Romania Q Q p - - Q - -
Poland - - Q - R Q - H
Switzerl - - - Q P H Q -
Turkey - P P p p R - >p°
Slovenia - P P p - - P -
Norway Q Q - p p - r -
Bulgaria Q - - Q - - - -
Belgium P H P - - - - -
Ukraine p p p - Q - p H
Slovakia - - - - p - Q -
Austria Q - p - - H - -
Scotland R p - p - - - -
Eire p p P - - - p >p*
Latvia - - - P - - - -
Bosnia - - - - - - p >p°
Monteneg - - - - - - - >p°
Estonia - - - - - - - >p°
Wales - - - p - - - -
Israel - p - - - - - -
Hungary p - - - - - - -

>p* to playoffs, seeded
>p° to playoffs, unseeded

Besides, the demise of Serbia would have freed a place for Bosnia in the seeded playoff pot, but with their draw in France they got overtaken by Turks and Czechs who won their last match to get there.

France is the worst ranked of the directly qualified teams, anyway.
http://www.world-results.net/uefa/ranking.html#2011


1 Spain 43116 Qualified - Seeding Pot 1
2 Netherl 40860 Qualified - Seeding Pot 1
--- ------- ----- ---------
3 Germany 40446 Qualified - Seeding Pot 2
4 Italy 34357 Qualified
5 England 33563 Qualified
6 Russia 33212 Qualified
--- ------- ----- ---------
7 Croatia 32723 Playoffs
8 Greece 32455 Qualified - Seeding Pot 3
9 Sweden 31675 Qualified - Seeding Pot 3
10 Denmark 31205 Qualified - Seeding Pot 3
--- -------- ----- ---------
11 Portugal 31202 Playoffs
12 France 30508 Qualified
13 Ireland 28203 Playoffs
14 Ukraine 28029 Hosts - Seeding Pot 1 **
15 CzechRep 27982 Playoffs
16 Serbia 27975
17 Switzerl 27745
18 Turkey 27601 Playoffs
19 Bosnia 27198 Playoffs
20 Norway 27093
21 Slovakia 27034
22 Israel 26942
23 Hungary 26110
24 Slovenia 25643
25 Romania 24968
26 Finland 24673
27 Scotland 24426
28 Poland 23806 Hosts - Seeding Pot 1 **
29 Austria 23246
30 Latvia 23185
31 N.Irelnd 22959
32 Belarus 22638
33 Belgium 22539
34 Bulgaria 22189
35 Monteneg 21876 Playoffs
36 Wales 21633
37 Estonia 20354 Playoffs
38 Armenia 19746


The Playoff seeding will be instead:

Pot 1: Croatia, Portugal, Eire, Czech Rep.
Pot 2: Turkey, Bosnia, Estonia, Montenegro

(we'd have replaced Portugal with Sweden hadn't these beaten Holland, and France for Czechs in pot 1 and Czechs for Bosnia in pot2 had the latter kept the win in France;
so a France-Eire rematch couldn't have been possible, due to Serbia elimination)

The Final Tournament seeding will be:

Pot 1
SPAIN
NETHERLANDS
UKRAINE
POLAND

Pot2
GERMANY
ITALY
ENGLAND
RUSSIA

Pot3
GREECE
SWEDEN
DENMARK
Croatia* (or Portugal; or France)

Pot4
*Portugal*
FRANCE*
*Eire
*CzechRep
(France will climb to Pot3 only if both Croatia and Portugal lose playoffs, in which case Pot4 will have the 4 playoffs winners)

what about a potential Spain, England, Portugal, France group? :D

Funko
12-10-2011, 08:43:34
The two relatively weak hosts really unbalances pot 1 doesn't it.

That group would be hell. Ouch.

Back!
12-10-2011, 08:51:50
The two relatively weak hosts really unbalances pot 1 doesn't it.

It was even worse in 2008, when along weak hosts Austria and Switzerland, there were weak Holders Greece too in Pot 1. Meaning that the best ranked team got penalised by getting in Pot1, as they were sure to pick one of the remainng best teams (2-3-4-5th ranked in Pot2)

Here at least we have both WC finalists in Pot 1 who won't face each other in groups, with one of them Euro Holders too.
It will be a 50-50% matter of luck indeed, for sides in Pot 2 (or lower) to pick from Pot1 either the easiest or the toughest opponent

This is also one of the reasons why I strongly *oppose* to joint co-hosting

Back!
12-10-2011, 10:59:35
That group would be hell. Ouch.

OTOH you could get Poland, Greece and Estonia
:D

MOBIUS
12-10-2011, 13:45:48
Wales won 3 out of their last 4 games! :bounce:

Oh shit, it's all over... :(

maroule
12-10-2011, 15:25:59
So!



:lol: ALMOST!

I managed to watch both halves endings
In the first I saw Dzeko's superb goal, which sent France in disarray, a ghost side for the remaining minutes to halftime. M'vila is the worst defender in the world.
In 2nd I switched back to it right after Nasri's equalising penalty. I think in that stint there were 5 goal chances for France and 3 for Bosnia.
I was jumping on my chair yelling!
Of course against France.
:D
After what they did in last WC10 playoffs, they'd have deserved to be sent thru it again :p




:shoot: :p
good lord that was close. Bosnia the best team by a mile in the first half, and loosing steam after 60 minutes... they could have scored 3 goals in the first 20 minutes... France without Benzema and Ribery is clearly an underling, quite fragile psychologically as well... with Benz, it's a bit better, but still nowhere near a genuine contender for the coming Euro

* Mvila can't be the worst defender in the world... he's a midfielder... Abidal and Rami where the central defenders... Rami is not only very irritatng as a person, but also quite crap as a player, his defending against Dzeko was slapstic comedy as its best (or worst if you are french). He fakes a lot, he injures other players, he thinks he's the greatest star of the land, and he has the IQ of a baboon. Hurrah, we found our Materazzi.

** we can't be held responsible forever of the irish farce, we already paid for that bad karma with the south african self-immolation

Fistandantilus
13-10-2011, 07:49:04
Hurrah, we found our Materazzi.


:lol:

Funko
13-10-2011, 08:11:14
:lol:

Back!
13-10-2011, 11:22:07
Playoff Matches 11/12 & 15 November

Turkey v Croatia
Estonia v Eire
Czech Rep. v Montenegro
Bosnia v Portugal

Back!
13-10-2011, 12:10:20
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UEFA_Euro_2012_seeding

The remaining pots can only be confirmed after the conclusion of the qualifying process, as teams' coefficient rankings will still be affected by results in the forthcoming qualifying play-offs.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UEFA_coefficient#National_team_coefficient
Ranking points for all games [...] will be awarded according to the rules listed below.


10,000 points are awarded for each match played.
For the result of each match, the team will earn an additional 30,000 for winning and 10,000 for a draw.
In case of a game to be decided by penalty shoot out, the winner will gain an additional 10,000 points, beside of the points awarded for the drawn result.
Each match at [...] play-offs to determine qualification, are also granted some extra bonus points; ranging from 6,000 points for all play-offs [...]
Finally 501 points are earned for a goal scored, while 500 are lost for each goal conceded.
Coefficients are calculated for each two and a half cycle, by dividing the sum of earned points with the number of games played.
When calculating the overall average coefficient for the cycles, the latest full cycle and half cycle will each have double the weight, compared to the oldest full cycle


PROVISIONAL Final Tournament group draw seeding

Pot 1
SPAIN
NETHERLANDS
UKRAINE
POLAND

Pot2
GERMANY
ITALY
ENGLAND
RUSSIA

Pot3
Croatia* (or Portugal; or France)
GREECE
SWEDEN
DENMARK

Pot4
Portugal (or Bosnia)
FRANCE
Eire (or Estonia)
CzechRep (or Montenegro)
* Turkey

Back!
13-10-2011, 13:09:02
in a two-legged playoff, a team can qualify via


two wins (at least +2 goal diff) [e.g. 1-0 1-0]
a win and a draw (at least +1 goal diff) [e.g. 1-0 0-0]
a win and a loss, with better goal diff (at least +1) [e.g. 2-0 0-1]
a win and a loss, with goal diff 0 but more away goals [e.g. 1-0 1-2]
a win and a loss, with goal diff 0 and same away goals, after penalty shootout [e.g. 1-0 0-1]
two draws, with goal diff 0 but more away goals [e.g. 0-0 1-1]
two draws, with goal diff 0 and same away goals, after penalty shootout [e.g. 0-0 0-0]


The teams qualifying via playoffs will thus get

32k for the 2 matches (including po bonus)
20k for 2 draws without pso (on away goals) up to 60k for 2 wins
500 per each goal difference, plus 1 point per each goal scored


that is at least:


93,002 = 32k + 60k + 1002+
72,501 = 32k + 40k + 501+
62,502 = 32k + 30k + 502+
62,002 = 32k + 30k + 2+
72,001 = 32k + 30k+10k + 1+
52,001 = 32k + 20k + 1+
62,000 = 32k + 20k+10k + 0+


these will go to enhance the average of the current half-cycle (that is the just completed qualifying groups), which 40% gets added to the previous cycles to form the total coefficient

maroule
13-10-2011, 13:45:54
possible draw then;

Spain
Germany
Portugal
France

that would be fun...

Back!
13-10-2011, 14:05:44
what about a potential Spain, England, Portugal, France group? :D


That group would be hell. Ouch.

OTOH you could get Poland, Greece and Estonia
:D

our considerations about a potential Group of Death got lost amidst the ton of factual info I posted
:cute:

maroule
13-10-2011, 15:38:06
it's almost certain France will be in the 4th pot / it would require both Portugal and Croatia to lose their barrage, which is frankly unlikely

funny thing is that pot 1 is hit and miss (getting Spain or Poland ain't exactly the same), while pot 2 is quite uniformly tough (although Germany looks a notch above the other three)

Back!
13-10-2011, 15:58:49
both Portugal and Croatia to lose their barrage, which is frankly unlikely

well, considering the diplay Bosnia gave vs you, and the stamina that Turks can put in facing slav/balkan teams, I'd say they're not favorite but their qualification is not out of the range of possibilities.

It was much more unlikely imho that Russia could lose to Slovenia WC10 playoffs

Back!
13-10-2011, 16:47:11
The teams qualifying via playoffs will thus get ... at least:


93,002 = 32k + 60k + 1002+
72,501 = 32k + 40k + 501+
62,502 = 32k + 30k + 502+
62,002 = 32k + 30k + 2+
72,001 = 32k + 30k+10k + 1+
52,001 = 32k + 20k + 1+
62,000 = 32k + 20k+10k + 0+


these will go to enhance the average of the current half-cycle (that is the just completed qualifying groups), which 40% gets added to the previous cycles to form the total coefficient


6 Russia 33212 Qualified
--- ------- ----- ---------
7 Croatia 32723 Playoffs

10 Denmark 31205 Qualified - Seeding Pot 3
--- -------- ----- ---------
11 Portugal 31202 Playoffs
12 France 30508 Qualified
13 Ireland 28203 Playoffs


of course, to increase the standing average, a team must get at least THAT average PLUS something
Pardoxically, a team having a good coeff from previous cycles and a mediocre one in this one, would find easier to increase their total with these 2 PO matches

if my math is not wrong, I came to a few conclusions:

To make up the almost 500pts lag from Russia and climb in Pot 2, Croatia should get almost 80k from the 2 Playoff matches.
This means they must win both playoff legs. Or, in case 2, win one by 16 goals (!), to afford a draw in 2nd leg :D

Portugal only have 3 points less than Denmark (who sent them to playoffs), thus they need a minimum increase over their current average. This makes 61,205 points requirement. Practically, they just need to avoid case 6 (2 draws on away goals, wihtout PSO) and they'll get to re-overtake Denmark.
Thus, they're almost sure to be in pot 3, even if Croatia qualify.
It's Denmark thus putting their hopes on Turkey (OR Bosnia) to *stay* in Pot 3.

Best chance for Eire, would be for Turkey and Bosnia to eliminate Croatia and Portugal, and THEN trying to overtake France in coeff.
Here the gap is huge tho, more than 2k total points (remember that current E12 avg counts for its 40%). Eire would nee 132k in the 2 matches, to overtake France. Startin from 92k with two wins, they'd need to add further 40k thanks to Goal Difference alone! At 500 per goal that is 80 goals margin :lol: 40-0 and 40-0, that's tennis not fooball
Due the initial consideration (the increase paradox), it would be just a little easier for Czechs: two wins with +48 goal difference :D

For the unseeded teams we'd begin talking about 3-digit GD, so let's skip it

SUMMARY

Croatia in Pot2 in place of Russia, IF they qualify with two wins
Portugal in Pot3 in place of Denmark (except if they qualify on away goals with 2 draws)
Denmark stay in Pot3 if Croatia and Portugal don't both qualify
France climbs to Pot3 (behind Denmark) only if BOTH Croatia and Portugal get eliminated
Eire or Czechs can hope to take France' place only at the Playstation

maroule
14-10-2011, 12:47:08
I can't score 40 goals at playstation....

Funko
16-11-2011, 08:45:04
Pot 1
Ukraine
Poland
Spain
Netherlands

Pot 2
Germany
Italy
England
Russia

Pot 3
Croatia
Greece
Portugal
Sweden

Pot 4
Denmark
France
Czech Republic
Republic of Ireland

Back!
16-11-2011, 12:48:21
good job

in summary:

- all seeded teams qualified

- Croatia "chose" to control the qualification by not risking more than a 0-0, thus giving up 2nd Pot, and choosing to face 1 in Germany-Italy-England rather than Greece-Portugal-Sweden

Back!
16-11-2011, 13:07:11
W98 E00 W02 E04 W06 E08 W10 E12
Italy P Q Q Q Q Q Q Q
Spain Q Q Q P P Q Q Q
Germany Q Q P Q H R Q Q
France H Q T Q Q R P Q
England Q P Q Q Q - Q Q
Denmark Q P Q Q - - Q Q
Netherl Q H - P Q R Q Q
Sweden - Q Q Q R R - R
Portugal - R Q H Q R P P
Croatia P - Q P Q Q - P
CzechRep - Q o Q P Q - P
Greece - - - Q - Q P Q
Serbia P Q - - Q - Q -
Russia o - Q P - R o Q
Romania Q Q o - - Q - -
Poland - - Q - R Q - H
Switzerl - - - Q P H Q -
Turkey - P P o o R - o
Slovenia - P P o - - P -
Norway Q Q - o o - r -
Bulgaria Q - - Q - - - -
Belgium P H P - - - - -
Ukraine o o o - Q - o H
Slovakia - - - - o - Q -
Austria Q - o - - H - -
Scotland R o - o - - - -
Eire o o P - - - o P
Latvia - - - P - - - -
Bosnia - - - - - - o o
Monteneg - - - - - - - o
Estonia - - - - - - - o
Wales - - - o - - - -
Israel - o - - - - - -
Hungary o - - - - - - -

Funko
16-11-2011, 13:08:34
How far do you have to go back to make Italy not top of that list? Or are they always top?

Back!
16-11-2011, 13:15:32
LOL, I excpeted that question

Let's say, that going further back, bigger complications would have arisen having to deal with Yugo and USSR...

that was 1st reason I stopped there
2nd was my laziness
coincidentally I think Italy had slightly worst records in previous qualifications
but had I wanted to intentionally bias that table in favor of Italy, I'd have started with Euro2000 which was also a nice round number, but that would have left out last Scot qualification

Besides, the ordering in the table is approximate and questionable, I didn't set or consistently follow rigid criteria

Back!
16-11-2011, 13:37:22
OK, for Euro96 Italy qualified as Runner-up (by 3 goal difference to Croatia), while Spain and Germany Qualified winning their group.
stiil 1 R & 1 P are "better" than Spain's 2 P
Germany has 1 R & 1 P too, but they have 1 H instead of 1 Q, which I consider "easier" :)

Back!
16-11-2011, 14:02:31
for WC 94, both Spain & Italy won their qualification group, while Germany were qualified as Holders (and France & england failed)

another reason to not backtrack too far in the past, was that formats underwent significant changes (only 1 playoff in 96, none in 94, only 7 qualified teams in 92 as group winners...)

Back!
16-11-2011, 14:13:55
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UEFA_Euro_1992_qualifying

for Euro 92 several momentuous changes took place after the draw, during or right after the qualifiers
Italy & Spain both failed to qualify (Italy would have been R with new 16-teams format, Spain not even that as they got 3rd)
newly-unified Germany Qualified in an easier 4-teams group as they "gobbled" the 5th group rival East Germany before starting :)

Funko
16-11-2011, 14:48:18
:)

Excellent. thanks.

Back!
16-11-2011, 16:38:42
I won't let you off that lightly

remember: Q>R>P>T>H >> o>r>-
(r = directly eliminated as runner-up, not even eligible to a playoff)

since 92

ITA 8Q 1R 1P -T -H 1r --
SPA 8Q -R 2P -T -H -r 1-
GER 7Q 1R 1P 1T 1H -r --
ENG 7Q -R 1P -T 1H -r 2-

since 86

SPA 11Q -R 2P -T -H -r 1-
ITA 9Q 1R 1P 1T 1H 1r --
ENG 9Q 1R 1P -T 1H -r 2-
GER 8Q 2R 1P 1T 2H -r --


Spain and Italy both failed qualification for 92, where Germany never failed
But Germany "earned" it less times, as (since then) they benefited once of being hosts and once of being holders

if we go further 3 cycles back, since 86, we see that Spain add 3Qs, where Ger only QRH and Ita QTH

in summary, ITA are surely on top going back to 94
counting 92 that's debatable vs Germany (Ita Qr vs Ger TH)
we need to go back to WC90 qualifiers to see Spain on top
and back to 84 to see Ita overtaken by Germany too

Back!
16-11-2011, 16:56:01
Q R P T H o r el W78 E80 W82 E84 W86 E88 W90 E92 W94 E96 W98 E00 W02 E04 W06 E08 W10 E12
Spain 14 - 2 - 1 - - 1 Q Q H Q Q Q Q - Q Q Q Q Q P P Q Q Q
Germany 11 2 1 2 2 - - - T Q Q Q Q H R Q T Q Q Q P Q H R Q Q
Italy 10 2 1 1 2 - 1 1 Q H R - T Q H r Q R P Q Q Q Q Q Q Q
England 10 2 1 - 1 - 2 2 r Q R r Q Q R Q - H Q P Q Q Q - Q Q
Netherl 9 2 2 - 1 1 1 2 Q Q - r o Q Q Q R P Q H - P Q R Q Q
Denmark 8 2 1 - - - 1 6 - - - Q Q Q r R - R Q P Q Q - - Q Q
France 7 3 1 1 2 - 1 3 Q r R H Q - - Q - R H Q T Q Q R P Q
Romania 7 - - - - 1 2 8 r - - Q - r Q - Q Q Q Q o - - Q - -
Russia 6 3 1 - - 2 1 5 - - Q r R Q - Q R Q o - Q P - R o Q
Sweden 6 3 - - 1 - 2 6 Q - - r - r Q H Q - - Q Q Q R R - R
Serbia 6 - - - - - 2 8 - r Q Q - r Q q - - P Q - - Q - Q -
CzechR 5 2 2 - - 1 3 5 r Q R - - r R r - Q - Q o Q P Q - P
Poland 5 1 - - 1 - 1 10 Q r Q - Q - - - - - - - Q - R Q - H
Greece 5 - 1 - - - 1 11 - Q - - - r - - Q - - - - Q - Q P Q
Portugal 4 3 2 - 1 - 2 6 r - - Q R - - r - Q - R Q H Q R P P
Belgium 4 1 3 - 1 - 1 8 r Q Q Q P - Q - R - P H P - - - - -
Croatia 4 - 3 - - - - 2 x x x x x x x x x Q P - Q P Q Q - P
Scotland 3 3 1 - - 2 - 9 Q - Q - P - R Q - R R o - o - - - -
Switzerl 3 1 1 - 1 - 2 10 - - - r - - - r R Q - - - Q P H Q -
Norway 3 - - - - 2 2 11 r - - - - - - - Q - Q Q - o o - r -
Bulgaria 2 3 - - - - 2 11 r - - - R r - - R R Q - - Q - - - -
Austria 2 1 - - 1 1 1 12 Q r R - - - - - - - Q - o - - H - -
Hungary 2 - 1 - - 1 1 13 P r Q - Q - - - - - o - - - - - - -
Eire 1 2 2 - - 4 1 8 - - - - - Q R r R o o o P - - - o P
Ukraine 1 - - - 1 4 - 3 x x x x x x x x x - o o o - Q - o H
Slovakia 1 - - - - 1 - 7 x x x x x x x x x - - - - - o - Q -
Turkey - 2 2 - - 3 1 10 - r - - - - - - - R - P P o o R - o
N.Ireland - 2 - - - - 2 14 - r R r R - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Slovenia - - 3 - - 1 - 5 x x x x x x x x x - - P P o - - P -
Latvia - - 1 - - - - 8 x x x x x x x x x - - - - P - - - -
Bosnia - - - - - 2 - 7 x x x x x x x x x - - - - - - - o o
Wales - - - - - 1 2 15 - - - r - - - r - - - - - o - - - -
Monteneg - - - - - 1 - 2 x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x - o
Estonia - - - - - 1 - 8 x x x x x x x x x - - - - - - - - o
Israel - - - - - 1 - 17 - - - - - - - - - - - o - - - - - -
DDR - - - - - - 2 5 r - - - - r - x x x x x x x x x x x


'scusme but i'll adjust the formatting tomorow
___
adjusted
I counted a "q" for Serbia (Yugoslavia) in 92, because they had earned it on the pitch, but were not allowed into the final tournament because of the UN ban. In their place, Denmark took part (and won the title), still I counted an "R" for them as they got 2nd behind Yugo in the qualifiers

didn't go back before 1978, because for Euro1976 there still were qualifiers to "quarterfinal playoffs" as the final tournaments were actually just a "Final Four". So I should have noted all P/o/r and no Q, which would have biased things a bit

Funko
16-11-2011, 17:24:04
The formatting is fine, that is the question answered. Thank you. :D

maroule
17-11-2011, 08:34:21
there is the making of a hell of a Death group

my favorite;
Spain
Germany
Portugal
France


my regret; France won't play Ireland... so Rami won't be able to score with a hand ball at the 93rd minute...

Funko
17-11-2011, 08:56:47
Hopefully you can meet in a later round so Robbie Keane can punch in a winner.

Back!
17-11-2011, 11:30:22
The formatting is fine

you have such low standards
:p

I did it for my own pride

here's a wiki summary of Euro appearances only
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_team_appearances_in_the_UEFA_European_Foo tball_Championship#Comprehensive_team_results_by_t ournament

____

anyway, Italy is the only uefa team with a "clean sheet" in the new millennium (always qualified to WC or Euro as actual Group Winner since Euro 2000)
and only 5 uefa teams have appeared [or will] in all WC/Euro final tournaments since Euro 2000 (Spain, Germany, Italy, France, Portugal)

Greg W
17-11-2011, 12:26:12
and only 5 uefa teams have appeared [or will] in all WC/Euro final tournaments since Euro 2000 (Spain, Germany, Italy, France, Portugal)From the looks of it, Germany are the only team to appear in every one on that list of yours...

Back!
17-11-2011, 13:23:42
Herr Greg, du bist so old millennium!
:p
not only what you say it's true, but [West] Germany have always qualified for the final tournament of every competition they entered
(they didn't apply for the 2 overseas 1930 and 1950 WC, nor for the "European Nations Cup" 1960 and 1964)

Brazil is the only nation to have appeared in every WC (didn't check Copa America but I figure they never missed that either)

Back!
02-12-2011, 09:12:25
Draw this evening

http://www.uefa.com/uefaeuro/news/newsid=1725496.html

http://www.uefa.com/MultimediaFiles/Photo/competitions/Draws/01/72/40/56/1724056_w2.jpg

Funko
02-12-2011, 09:43:18
:beer:

Fistandantilus
02-12-2011, 18:31:41
5.58pm: Having chosen their base in Poland, England will play all of their matches in Ukraine.

:D

Back!
02-12-2011, 19:24:57
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UEFA_Euro_2012

lucky frogs

Mr. Bas
02-12-2011, 20:01:58
Crap.

Fistandantilus
02-12-2011, 23:33:55
Yeah, sorry Holland, you didn't draw a group with the hosts in it, better luck next time.
Or maybe it's time to stop putting the hosts in pot 1 no matter their rating..

mr_B
03-12-2011, 13:28:19
just a walk in the park

Funko
05-12-2011, 08:32:07
SO many exciting games coming up there. :beer:

maroule
05-12-2011, 08:53:39
group B is going to be great for neutrals, Group A (to me) boring as shit (probably not for Paitkis)

France and England; big names, average teams, I wouldn't discount Sweden... the qualified will get Italy or Spain...

Funko
05-12-2011, 09:00:40
Our group is boring.

On the plus side for Group B, qualify and you are in the Semi-Finals.

Fistandantilus
05-12-2011, 09:36:13
Are you saying England made the semis already? Cause I really don't see how you could fail to qualify in that group.

Funko
05-12-2011, 09:51:15
We'll get knocked in the QF by Italy or Spain.

Funko
05-12-2011, 09:52:03
France are much improved, Sweden are a traditional bogey side, and we have had plenty of upsets against Eastern European teams away from home. Wouldn't say our qualification was assured.

maroule
05-12-2011, 10:26:52
would agree with that, including the fact irt's likely to be boring
england can very well draw Sweden and Ukraine, and lose to France on a fluke penalty at the 87th minute (same goes for France obviously)

Fistandantilus
06-12-2011, 12:49:43
We'll get knocked in the QF by Italy or Spain.

Italy and Spain are crap. Didn't you utterly destroy the spaniards at wembley few weeks ago?

Funko
06-12-2011, 13:13:36
We somehow sneaked a 1-0 win, undeserved. They played really badly, but still managed 3 amazing chances to score that they somehow contrived to miss.

The worst thing that could happen to England might be Rooney coming back into the team for the knockouts after his suspension.

Fistandantilus
06-12-2011, 18:20:52
I don't get it. Rooney's bad?

And I think you overestimate Spain.

maroule
07-12-2011, 08:22:50
I think the reverse

Broadly speaking, friendly matches can't be a better measure of the quality of the team than the fact they won the last two global competitions with the same players, who are still in their prime (Puyol excepted, but they win a Fabregas who's right now even better than in his Arse days)... Same system, same players, same outstanding results at club level, and no visible impact of the Real - Barça rivalry at the national level.

Spain is still the best team out there, and certainly better than Germany, who is weaker at the back. I'm not sure Spain will win it (there's a reason nobody ever did win 3 in a row => weight of expectations versus loosing the competitive edge from having won it previously), but don't be fooled by the crap friendly matches they didn't give much of a fuck about. They used to be world champions of friendlies, now that they are WC for real, why should they be arsed?

So still the team to beat. Germany second, Holland third, esp if Van Persie continues his run (not sure about), and all the others a notch or two down

Funko
08-12-2011, 08:48:04
I don't get it. Rooney's bad?

And I think you overestimate Spain.

Rooney's great, but his form in post-season tournaments hasn't been good yet. I worry that a decent team of young players will qualify out of the group, playing quite well. Then he'll come back in, with no match practice, into a huge QF and just not perform, get frustrated and sent off.

OTOH he could come back in and score 3, and I don't think you could leave him out if available.

Funko
08-12-2011, 08:48:46
I think the reverse

Broadly speaking, friendly matches can't be a better measure of the quality of the team than the fact they won the last two global competitions with the same players, who are still in their prime (Puyol excepted, but they win a Fabregas who's right now even better than in his Arse days)... Same system, same players, same outstanding results at club level, and no visible impact of the Real - Barça rivalry at the national level.

Spain is still the best team out there, and certainly better than Germany, who is weaker at the back. I'm not sure Spain will win it (there's a reason nobody ever did win 3 in a row => weight of expectations versus loosing the competitive edge from having won it previously), but don't be fooled by the crap friendly matches they didn't give much of a fuck about. They used to be world champions of friendlies, now that they are WC for real, why should they be arsed?

So still the team to beat. Germany second, Holland third, esp if Van Persie continues his run (not sure about), and all the others a notch or two down

Agreed.

Funko
08-12-2011, 10:36:54
They've reduced his ban so he can now play against Ukraine.


The worst thing that could happen to England might be Rooney coming back into the team for the key final group game against Ukraine.

maroule
08-12-2011, 14:08:13
well, Ukraine will be less fearsome than FC Bale, so he should be fine

Funko
08-12-2011, 14:23:47
It's amazing, at the beginning of the season ManU looked like an unstoppable attacking juggernaut, now you can barely imagine them scoring.

maroule
08-12-2011, 15:53:57
I have no explanation

it's like they've all been berbatoved

Funko
08-12-2011, 15:57:18
City on the other hand just look pure class throughout the team. If the Champions league had started a bit later, when they'd hit their stride, I think they'd have qualified from that group, which was strong.

maroule
08-12-2011, 18:43:38
at least we have some genuine teams in the Europa League now, I might even watch it from a distance

Back!
12-12-2011, 09:24:22
EL "from the distance", you might be right indeed, considering that:

- Sochaux didn't even made it to the groups
- Rennes are eliminated at the bottom of their group, behind even Celtic (!)
- PSG are on the verge of elimination by Red Bull Salzburg (if they win in Bratislava, where Slovan earned their sole point with a goalless draw vs PSG indeed)
- Lille crashed out of CL directly into nothingness, even behind substitute Turkish champions

so you could have 2 teams in CL but none in EL
:p

maroule
12-12-2011, 10:53:33
well, i can't say the french teams are getting my blood boiling anyway right now...