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Back!
18-03-2010, 11:58:39
inspired by Funko e Fist in the other thread
http://www.counterglow.com/forum/showthread.php?p=1009788#post1009788

UEFA Country Ranking
http://www.xs4all.nl/~kassiesa/bert/uefa/data/method4/crank2010.html
4 previous seasons 05-09
Ita 48.910
Ger 46.124

current so far
http://www.xs4all.nl/~kassiesa/bert/uefa/data/method4/ccoef2010.html
Ita 98/7 = 14.000
Ger 89.5/6 = 14.916

Standings
Ita 62.910
Ger 61.040

still 1.870 to make up

tonite
Juve alone could add by up to 3/7 = 0.429
3 Ger clubs could add by up to 9/6 =1.500

in best case Germany could start quarterfinals with 4 teams vs. one and just 0.370 to make up

Fist, willy you care to update here the fortunes of your fellow countrymen (and your beloved club)?
:D

Fistandantilus
18-03-2010, 12:05:30
Hey, that's your job. You're way better than me :D

Funko
19-03-2010, 09:34:35
And Fulham won! Amazing scenes at Craven Cottage.

Roy Hodgson has done a remarkable job there.

Funko
19-03-2010, 09:38:19
Love things like this:

It is hard to describe the Craven Cottage atmosphere as white hot. Or intimidating. Visiting supporters from West Ham United, for example, like to taunt their hosts with chants like "You only drink white wine" and "Does your butler know you're here?"

http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/2010/mar/18/roy-hodgson-fulham-juventus-europa-league

King_Ghidra
19-03-2010, 09:44:54
I feel my support for the europa league/uefa cup is reaching new heights of vindication lately

Funko
19-03-2010, 09:51:01
True.

It's a shame it's not a straight knockout from the start. The last few years the later knockout stages have been really good. FA cup like.

I think that part of my problem with it has been that so many of the games were on shit broadcasters here. The quality of presentation of football on Sky/BBC in HD is so high that when a match is on Five or ITV2 (or even ITV1...) it feels massively inferior, even if the match itself is good.

Back!
19-03-2010, 10:40:24
Italy
Juve @ Fulham 1-4 : 0+0 pts (lost match + eliminated)

Germany
Hamburg @ Anderlecht 3-4 : 0+1
Wolfsburg v Rubin 2-1 : 2+1
Werder v Valencia 4-4 : 1+0

Ita added 0/7 = 0.000, season 98/7 = 14.000, total 48.910 + 14.000 = 62.910, Inter in CL
Ger added 5/6 = 0.833, season 94.5/6 = 15.750, total 46.124 + 15.750 = 61.874, Bayern in CL, Hamburg+Wolfsburg in EL

1.036 coeff points still missing, 1 club each in CL, 2 Ger vs none in EL
that's rouglhy 7 game/bonus points to earn more than italians
due to italy dividing by 7 entrants, even just 6 more could be enough
Say for instance:
Inter goes out in style, with a win and a loss, or two draws: (2+0)/7 total 63.196
with just 8 points Germany would be ahead by decimals
imagine two clubs to semis, the 3rd out by only drawing one: 3+1 2+1 1+0 = 8/6 total 63.207

Funko
19-03-2010, 11:07:36
OMG the incredibly exciting drawing of 8 balls will be drawn out to last an amazingly long time, right now!

http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/2010/mar/19/champions-league-draw-live

Funko
19-03-2010, 11:09:04
Here are the ties I'd like to see drawn out of the Uefa version of a silken bag:
Bayern v Inter. Uefa co-efficent play-off.

CG driving the media as always.

Fistandantilus
19-03-2010, 11:28:33
Cool, a french derby

Back!
19-03-2010, 11:52:12
now a German derby in Europa League would be great news for them, as that would grant germany 5 points whichever the result, and a club in the semi

CL draw looks alas a tiny bit easier fo the italians
but judging from yesterday, you never really know
:p

Back!
19-03-2010, 12:21:33
WOW

Hamburg v Standard Liege
Fulham v Wolfsburg

Valencia v Atletico Madrid
Benfica v Liverpool

Standard will be a rollover
Only yesterday's Craven Cottage heroes stand in the way of an all-german semi!

Back!
19-03-2010, 12:33:23
SAY:
Wolfsburg qualifies on away goals = 2+1
Hamburg gets the whole 4+1
in the semi they'll get 5 points anyway among the two of them
and one gets to the final (in Hamburg)

not counting the final, in such a scenario Germans grab 13 points
this would force Inter to get 8 more than Bayern
gettin out in the semi with honour, would only grant 5+2, not enough

This translates in:

barring miracles from Standard and Fulham,
Italians need
- Bayern to lose both v ManU and
- Inter in the final,
or they'll lose a berth starting fron next season Serie A,
and we'll see one less of them effective already 2011-12 UCL
:)

Fistandantilus
19-03-2010, 13:21:35
Bayern are crap, seriously. ManU all the way to the final.

Back!
02-04-2010, 12:10:42
Italy
Inter v CSKA 1-0

Germany
Bayern v ManU 2-1
Hamburg v Standard 2-1
Wolfsburg @ Fulham 1-2

Ita added 2/7 = 0.285, season 100/7 = 14.285, total 48.910 + 14.285 = 63.195
Ger added 4/6 = 0.666, season 98.5/6 = 16.416, total 46.124 + 16.416 = 62.540

just 0.655 more coeff pts (= 4 game pts) for Germans!
the overtaking could take place next week already!

Fistandantilus
07-04-2010, 20:42:00
Fuck you ManU :D

Funko
08-04-2010, 09:56:38
Bayern are crap, seriously. ManU all the way to the final.

:violin:

MOBIUS
08-04-2010, 10:01:15
So no teams make it to the Semis for the first time in ages and the papers are already the obituaries for English football...:rolleyes:

Funko
08-04-2010, 10:03:17
I know, absurd. They should be saying that it's good for the competition that the minor European footballing Nations like Spain, Italy, Germany and France get a team in there.

Fistandantilus
08-04-2010, 11:57:56
I still think Bayern are seriously crap. The ManU suicide really surprised me.

King_Ghidra
08-04-2010, 14:21:47
i think it surprised everyone. but i certainly appreciate the variety in the sf line-up. the english media soul-searching is just column filling, none of these journos believe any of it.

Ellipsis
08-04-2010, 14:47:09
:bounce::lol::beer::p

Ah, Schadenfreude, I love you!

Fistandantilus
08-04-2010, 20:57:46
Fulham :beer:

King_Ghidra
09-04-2010, 11:39:49
amazing. they looked so good at times, real attacking fluidity.

i was heartily resisting the zamora for england hype, but i have to admit he has been consistently excellent in is role. i still don't know if he will win over capello, or if it would even win him a starting place rather than a squad place anyway, but the european performances will have enhanced his case tremendously.

Fistandantilus
11-04-2010, 11:32:09
<object width="640" height="385"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/LnOVCR8Ioj8&hl=it_IT&fs=1&"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/LnOVCR8Ioj8&hl=it_IT&fs=1&" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="640" height="385"></embed></object>

Back!
12-04-2010, 09:20:13
Italy
Inter @ CSKA 1-0 = 2+1

Germany
Bayern @ ManU 2-3 = 0+1
Hamburg @ Standard 3-1 = 2+1
Wolfsburg v Fulham 0-1 = 0+0

Ita added 3/7 = 0.429, season 103/7 = 14.714, total 48.910 + 14.714 = 63.624
Ger added 4/6 = 0.666, season 102.5/6 = 17.083, total 46.124 + 17.083 = 63.207

Enlgand tried to play kingmaker in this Axis Race
but what red devils conceded, cottagers took away with interests

the gap keeps closing, but still 0.417 coeff points to catch up
this means that Bayern and Hamburg together need to gather just 3 points more than Inter
Should Inter get 4 (i.e. get to the final), just 2 more (i.e. 6) would do (due to Ger dividing by 6 instead of 7)
Should even Inter play 3 matches and win them all, getting the maximum 7 points (i.e. 7/7 = +1 coeff), Germany would still snatch 3rd rank with 9/6=1.5

the problem for bloody italians ;) is that Germany's opponents (Lyon and Fulham) look on paper much less tough than top favorite Barça
:)
I wouldn't write off further chances of surprise by Lyon and Fulham...
HSV will play 2nd leg away, but they'll have the further motivation of coming back once more at their home venue 2 weeks later

Fistandantilus
12-04-2010, 09:43:02
The real problem for bloody italians is they need to care about the Europa League if they want to have 4 spots for the CL available.

I still remember Palermo president Zamparini forcing his coach to play second lines in the cup cause "serie A is more important". And he's not alone.
Unless there is a change in mentality and we stop considering the Europa League a distraction I don't see us getting back in the top three anytime soon.

Not that I complain btw :p and kudos to Germany for being (so far) the top footballing nation this year according to the ratings.

Back!
12-04-2010, 09:45:50
I don't see us getting back in the top three anytime soon

I see you take your demotion for granted already
:D

Fistandantilus
12-04-2010, 09:49:28
Actually I do :D

Back!
12-04-2010, 09:50:02
and kudos to Germany for being (so far) the top footballing nation this year according to the ratings.

lol, by 0.012 coeff points indeed!

http://www.xs4all.nl/~kassiesa/bert/uefa/data/method4/ccoef2010.html

Back!
19-04-2010, 12:23:21
The real problem for bloody italians is they need to care about the Europa League if they want to have 4 spots for the CL available.

I still remember Palermo president Zamparini forcing his coach to play second lines in the cup cause "serie A is more important". And he's not alone.
Unless there is a change in mentality and we stop considering the Europa League a distraction...

interesting idea for some analysis

let's start by stating this:
- in the last 20 years (including the current one, i.e. beginning with 1991 final League Ranking (http://www.xs4all.nl/~kassiesa/bert/uefa/data/method1/crank1991.html)) Spain, Italy, Germany and France have always been in the top 5 (before that we missed France too)
- England began then to recover after the ban. They temporarily made 5th spot in 1995 (http://www.xs4all.nl/~kassiesa/bert/uefa/data/method1/crank1995.html)
- from 1991 to 94 we had Belgium in the top 5, from 1996 to 1999 we had Netherlands
- with England back in, the quintet has never changed its composition since 2000 (only its relative ranking)

Thus we could concentrate on separating and comparing the contribution to the top 5 league ranking brought by the clubs who entered CL and by those who entered UC/EL
I know, clubs "relegated" from CL to EL might have significantly changed their performances, but that could happen both ways. So I'll keep the starting grid as easy reference, also considering this is about the number of club accessing CL indeed

Back!
19-04-2010, 16:14:21
I started with Italy, as the consideration came from you about the EL perfromances of your country teams

I let it take my hand a bit...

avg/y 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10

Italy 12,48 9,812 12,571 15,928 8,875 14,000 15,357 11,928 10,250 11,375 14,714

CL 15,26 11,875 11,500 21,875 11,000 17,750 18,125 14,625 13,375 12,750 19,750
UC 9,06 7,750 14,000 8,000 6,750 9,000 11,667 8,333 7,125 10,000 8,000

ACMilan 19,30 17 19 27 14 27 21 26 14 12 16
Inter 16,90 10,5 17 24,5 13 19,5 20,5 13 14 11 26
Juvent. 15,38 6 14 24 10 20,5 18 15,5 15
AS Roma 12,75 13 14 12 10 4 14 17 17 14 12,5
Parma 10,50 11 12 5 7 18 10
Fiorent 12,10 1 6 21 10,5 22
Lazio 9,36 14 6 18 7 7 8,5 5
Udinese 7,60 6 2 2 13 15
Chievo 1,75 1 2,5

Livorno 8,00 8
Perugia 8,00 8
Palermo 7,67 14 7 2
Sampd. 6,50 7 3,5 9
Genoa 6,50 6,5
Napoli 4,00 4
Empoli 2,00 2


In BOLD the points by the club who started that season from CL, including preliminaries
The CL/UC averages are split according to that
A few clubs played in UC after getting 3rd in CL group stage, all their points were tallied towards CL avg
There were also two notable exceptions, Inter in 200/01 and Parma in 2001/02, who got out in the preliminary round and went on a few turns in UC. I still counted them in the CL quota.

A more detailed analysis would split for all those teams the points they earned in CL (incl. preliminary) and those they earned the same season after going down in UC. This would better discriminate the different efforts a team had put in the two competitions. But would screw the averages a bit...

Anyway.
for your country there is a definite bias towards CL, you could size it in 25%
this ratio was roughly kept over the years, with both components going up and down the same way, hinting that the spread of forces within Serie A is more or less constant
the most evident variations are rather due to strong clubs failing to get into CL, thus raising the UC yield, or to one-hit-wonder minnows who snatched a place in europe to better clubs but were not equipped to stand up to the task next season too

this happened mainly in 4 seasons out of 10
- both Inter & Milan entering UC in 2001-02 and getting to the semis
- 3 teams in CL semis teh following year, while Chievo & Parma crashed out early from UC
- Milan & Udinese only bowing out to Werder in EL knockout stage last season, while no CL club achieved QF
- the current season is once again unbalanced in favor of CL, almost at 2003 levels...

If you look at the figures, the Palermo episode you quoted looks almost like a fluke, as the sicilians had behaved rather positively the two previous seasons

Back!
19-04-2010, 17:13:57
this is the summary with % added

avg/y 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10

Italy 12,48 9,812 12,571 15,928 8,875 14,000 15,357 11,928 10,250 11,375 14,714

+22,3% +21,0% - 8,5% +37,3% +23,9% +26,8% +18,0% +22,6% +30,5% +12,1% +34,2%
CL 15,26 11,875 11,500 21,875 11,000 17,750 18,125 14,625 13,375 12,750 19,750
UC 9,06 7,750 14,000 8,000 6,750 9,000 11,667 8,333 7,125 10,000 8,000
-27,4% -21,0% +11,4% -49,8% -23,9% -35,7% -24,0% -30,1% -30,5% -12,1% -45,6%


you'll have to wait tomorrow for the same table divided by points earned in actual competiton

then we'll see which one looks more significative and extend the comparison to the other 4 top countries

Debaser
20-04-2010, 19:53:44
A great picture I think:

http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Football/Pix/pictures/2010/4/20/1271782077056/Inter-v-Barcelona-001.jpg
from The Guardian.

King_Ghidra
21-04-2010, 09:12:04
Reminiscent of:
http://www.cianboland.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/05/maradona.jpg
http://www.la-redo.net/wp-contentold/uploadsold/maradona-peru.jpg

Fistandantilus
21-04-2010, 10:08:27
then we'll see which one looks more significative and extend the comparison to the other 4 top countries

Yeah, I suspect Germany is biased toward UC but I'd like to see an actual proof of it. Thanks for all the stats, really interesting :beer:

Back!
21-04-2010, 17:13:38
This tables split the two cups
Each club has a separate row in each Cup (where they took part), with separate averages
*A team has points in both tables in the same season, when they begun in CL and went down in UC failing the preliminary, or gettin 3rd in the group

avg/y 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10

Italy 12,48 9,812 12,571 15,928 8,875 14,000 15,357 11,928 10,250 11,375 14,714

CL 14,36 9,375 8,750 21,875 9,500 17,750 17,375 14,125 13,375 12,500 19,000
+15,1% -4,5% -30,4% +37,3% +7,0% +26,8% +13,1% +18,4% +30,5% +9,9% +29,1%
ACMilan 20,25 17 27 14 27 21 26 14 16
Fiorent 15,75 9,5* 22
Inter 15,33 0,5* 24,5 7* 19,5 20,5 13 14 11 28+
Juvent. 14,75 6 14 24 10 20,5 18 15,5 10*
AS Roma 13,00 14 12 4 17 17 14
Udinese 10,00 10*
Lazio 8,88 14 6 7 8,5
Parma 1,00 1*
Chievo 0,50 0,5*

UC 8,39 8,200 13,250 8,000 6,600 9,000 9,500 6,750 7,125 8,200 7,250
-32,8% -16,4% +5,4% -49,8% -25,6% -35,7% -38,1% -43,4% -30,5% -27,9% -50,7%
ACMilan 15,50 19 12
AS Roma 12,38 13 10 14 12,5
Inter 11,00 10* 17 6*
Parma 10,33 11 11* 5 7 18 10
Lazio 10,00 18 7 5
Livorno 8,00 8
Perugia 8,00 8
Palermo 7,67 14 7 2
Fiorent 7,25 1 6 21 1*
Sampd. 6,50 7 3,5 9
Genoa 6,50 6,5
Udinese 5,60 6 2 2 3* 15
Juvent. 5,00 5*
Napoli 4,00 4
Empoli 2,00 2
Chievo 1,50 1 2*


This suggests that some clubs had better performances in UC than in CL on average, or at least comparable.
And shows how the fluctuation of Italy's UEFA Coeff copies much more the fortunes of their CL teams, and that UC performances bear generally less influence than expected

This format requires a bit more effort for scooping the split data from wiki, but contains more information than the other (which could be derived from this one)
All that's left to do is finding the time to produce the same for Germany and other 3 top associations. It might even lead to 2 separate top 5 rankings for CL & UC
:)

GO BAYERN!!!

:beer:

Back!
21-04-2010, 17:32:20
I forgot to add, that CL clubs get a bouns point for just getting to the group phase (which for most of them is automatic):
1 till 2004
3 till 2009
4 now

And also since 2004 they get 1 more bonus point for qualifying to knockout round of 16, increased to 5 points this season

Whereas UC clubs only begin to get the 1pt bonus from QF on

This is to say the the Country Coeff points *inherently* reward CL clubs with more points.
Even if all entrants in both cups were to win all their matches up to the final (well, in the semis someone would have to lose a derby), CL would yield the same a higher average
(....hhhmmmmm..... .... tomorrow! )

Back!
23-04-2010, 07:56:27
Italy
Inter v Barça 3-1 = 2pt

Germany
Bayern v O.Lyon 1-0 = 2pt
Hamburg v Fulham 0-0 = 1pt

Ita added 2/7 = 0.286, season 105/7 = 15.000, total 48.910 + 15.000 = 63.910
Ger added 3/6 = 0.500, season 105.5/6 = 17.583, total 46.124 + 17.583 = 63.707

the gap is closing more and more, now it's 0.203 (it was 0.417 after QF)

- Inter lose 2-0 and go out, getting 0pt
Bayern & Hamburg only need 2pts altogether
Bayern can get 1pt losing 2-1 in Lyon (bonus for getting to the final) or 2pts by drawing
Hamburg can get 1pt by drawing 0-0 and losing the penalty shootout, or 2pts by winning the shootout or drawing with goals at Craven Cottage

- Inter lose 1-0 or 2-1 and get just 1pt bonus for reaching the final
Bayern & Hamburg need 3pts altogether, see above for the combinations
(a win would also grant qualification and 3pts to either german team)

- Inter draw at Camp Nou and get 1pt + 1 bonus = 2pts
Bayern & Hamburg need *the same* just 3pts altogether, because Inter points are divided by 7

- Inter get 3pts by winning in style both legs as they did in previous rounds vs Chelsea and CSKA
Bayern & Hamburg need 4pts altogether, this entails that at least Bayern must get to the final too (if not both germans)

Back!
28-04-2010, 06:57:48
Germany
Bayern @ O.Lyon 3-0 = 2pt + 1 bonus

Ger added 3/6 = 0.500, season 108.5/6 = 18.083, total 46.124 + 18.083 = 64.207

Back!
28-04-2010, 07:34:08
in the above analysis I focused on Inter, considering it easier as Italy only has one team left
I didn't think that Bayern played first

Now Germany is currently 3rd in Uefa Ranking at last, let's see what can italians do to retain their top 3 place for one more year

In general, they need to get in the final and win it, or at least draw it, i.e. get to the final penalty shootout ["pso"] (regardless who then wins the cup).
They also need Hamburg to not win in Fulham and in any case to lose the EL final (before the shootout)

I'll break this down in chronological order

I) Inter get out -> GER is 3rd

II) Inter qualify by losing in Barça (e.g. 0-1)
- II.A) Hamburg don't lose the semifinal @Fulham -> GER is 3rd
- II.B) HSV lose @Fulham
--- II.B1) Bayern get at least to pso -> GER is 3rd
--- II.B2) Inter win the Final (before pso) -> ITA is 3rd

III) Inter draw in Barça
- III.A) Hamburg qualify for EL final-> GER is 3rd
- III.B) HSV don't qualify for EL final (they lose @Fulham, or draw 0-0 & lose pso)
--- III.B1) Bayern get at least to pso -> GER is 3rd
--- III.B2) Inter win the Final (before pso) -> ITA is 3rd

IV) Inter win in Barça
- IV.A) HSV win @Fulham -> GER is 3rd
- IV.B) HSV qualify for EL final by drawing @ Fulham
--- IV.B1) HSV get at least to pso in EL final -> GER is 3rd
--- IV.B2) HSV lose EL final before pso
----- IV.B2a) Bayern get at least to pso -> GER is 3rd
----- IV.B2b) Inter win the Final (before pso) -> ITA is 3rd
- IV.C) HSV draw 0-0 @Fulham but get out in pso
--- IV.C1) Bayern get at least to pso -> GER is 3rd
--- IV.C2) Inter win the Final (before pso) -> ITA is 3rd
- IV.D) HSV lose @Fulham
--- IV.D1) Bayern win the Final (before pso) -> GER is 3rd
--- IV.D2) Inter get at least to pso -> ITA is 3rd

so, more than on Inter flair, Italy must also heavily rely on Cottagers!
:D

Fistandantilus
28-04-2010, 12:43:53
LOL, nice! I got lost reading all those scenarios but great work :D

Back!
29-04-2010, 07:23:03
Italy
Inter @ Barça 0-1 = 0pt + 1pt bonus

Ita added 1/7 = 0.142, season 106/7 = 15.142, total 48.910 + 15.142 = 64.052

that's still behind Germany's 64.207

But the final puts face to face a German and an Italian team indeed to contend the 2pts at stake
The points not grabbed by Bavarians, would be thus gifted to the italian rivals

By winning the final match (mind, NOT by drawing the match and then winning the cup on penalties), Inter would bring ITA's total to 64.339

But Hamburger SV can make CL final moot (for Uefa Ranking sake) by bringing home a single meager point tonite from Craven Cottage and increasing GER's total to an unreachable 64.374
Defending the 0-0 would be enough, should they even get then out on penalties (*)

Inter did the minimum necessary to clutch at the thinnest thread of Italy's hopes, the smallest disctraction by Fulham tonite can already severe it

II) Inter qualify by losing in Barça (e.g. 0-1)
- II.A) Hamburg don't lose the semifinal @Fulham -> GER is 3rd
- II.B) HSV lose @Fulham
--- II.B1) Bayern get at least to pso -> GER is 3rd
--- II.B2) Inter win the Final (before pso) -> ITA is 3rd

__________

(*) had Inter succeeded in their 10-man 0-0 defense yesterday, HSV qualification would have been instead required
so it wouldn't have made much of a difference anyway, just the eventual shootout outcome

Fistandantilus
29-04-2010, 19:29:27
Damn Petric :mad:

Fistandantilus
29-04-2010, 20:32:13
Davies :beer:

still 20 mins to go, go Fulham!

Fistandantilus
29-04-2010, 20:38:19
Wohoooooo

Geraaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa :beer:

Fistandantilus
29-04-2010, 20:56:29
Amazing game.
Fulham :beer:

Lazarus and the Gimp
29-04-2010, 21:06:36
Roy Hodgson is the new Mourinho.

King_Ghidra
29-04-2010, 21:43:02
Fantastic stuff.

Back!
30-04-2010, 09:06:24
LOL, amazing
:)

see how stats and figures have put additional interest into a EL semifinal

from a German (or... antitalian :cute: ) POV, the wrong english side got in the final
;)
watching Liverpool's 2nd extra time, was as sad as waching the last throes of someone who's drowning and you know you can't do anything to save him

great achievement by Fulham, maybe sacking the coach the week before wasn't the smartest move to do by Hamburg
and there goes RVN comeback on the international stage
stunning free-kick goal by Petric tho

____


Maybe it's all for the best this way tho

CL final now will see two teams who as of now are still running for the Treble
Of course Bundesliga and Serie A will be resolved before the final, as will be the two respective domestic cups.

Although rival fans would of course disagree, wouldn't it be nice if both teams would get to the final having won both their domestic leagues and cups?

Besides the title itself, we'd also have at stake:
- the Treble
- the 4th berth for CL qualification in next season league
:)

____

Inter last CL final was in '72 as I posted elsewhere
They played tho 4 Uefa Cup finals in the Nineties, winning 3
The one they lost was in '97 vs Schalke: their coach was Roy Hodgson

Now the same year Inter gets back to a CL final (vs a German team, having eliminated a Spanish in the semi),
Hodgson gets to the UC(EL) final again, vs a Spanish team, having eliminated a German in the semi
:)

Back!
17-05-2010, 07:00:26
And now it will be treble, whichever way it goes

http://en.uefa.com/memberassociations/news/newsid=1488850.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treble_(association_football)#Continental_trebles

Back!
21-05-2010, 11:31:11
http://www.fifa.com/worldfootball/clubfootball/news/newsid=1213832.html#bayern+inter

Fistandantilus
21-05-2010, 12:42:23
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Funko
24-05-2010, 08:41:56
So, I recorded the final. Fascinating game (if not a classic).

Strangely, despite Bayern dominating nearly every statistic, and missing some great chances, it felt like Inter fully deserved the win.

Back!
24-05-2010, 12:15:57
Strangely, despite Bayern dominating nearly every statistic, and missing some great chances, it felt like Inter fully deserved the win.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/2010/may/24/bayern-munich-internazionale-champions-league-final

His [Mourinho's] side had only a third of the possession in the final but that was as much as they wanted. A mundane Bayern were burdened by the ball

Back!
27-05-2010, 14:56:27
lol, I found out just now they have a forum too

http://kassiesa.nl/uefa/forum/view.php?topic=20100525015624.xml&PHPSESSID=cdb74a40053e152538353ad42f2af2da

Back!
06-08-2010, 11:36:18
and here the new season immediately rekindles the fight for 3rd place in uefa country ranking

http://en.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/news/newsid=1510998.html

SV Werder Bremen (GER) vs UC Sampdoria (ITA)

As anticipated last season, dropping the coeff from 6 season ago greatly favoured Germany, who now have 4.372 coeff points advantage over Italy.
True, the loser of the above match will play in the EL goups, where they might well face easier matches and play more games. But the one advancing to CL groups will earn a bonus equal to 2 won matches

Back!
30-08-2011, 08:47:38
Well, there was no fight in last season
:D

This season we still have to endure 3 italian sides in UCL groups (the 4th got out in playoff vs Arsenal) for the last time
This season only 3 teams will qualify for UCL from Serie A, for next season UCL, only 2 to Groups and 1 to playoff

Will Italy be able to regain anytime soon their 3rd place from Germany?
I strongly doubt so!
for the running season, Italy already suffered the loss of pathetic teams like Palermo and Roma, and Germany's 3rd place is 12 (TWELVE) points ahead
http://kassiesa.home.xs4all.nl/bert/uefa/data/method4/crank2012.html
BTW, the 2 following Associations are ~4pts behind, but I don't foresee FRA & POR able to push ITA down to 6th. For the moment.
___

If we peek tho into 2013 projected ranking (which already drops 07/08 results)
http://kassiesa.home.xs4all.nl/bert/uefa/data/method4/crank2013.html
ITA is atm 9 pts behind 3rd GER,
only half a pt above 5th FRA (although there's no allotment difference between 4th and 5th),
2 pts above 6th POR (1 more round for the 3rd club to qualify into UCL)
and 5 pts above 7th UKR (1 team demoted from UCL to UEL).
THERE the risk would get bigger

Fistandantilus
30-08-2011, 19:52:39
Will Italy be able to regain anytime soon their 3rd place from Germany?
I strongly doubt so!

They do not care so.. :D

Back!
16-03-2012, 13:24:36
can't recall whether we had a more general thread about uefa country ranking for clubs
I'll use this one to record

having just alinged at QF stage in 2012 CL & EL

- Cyprus would need 4 points to overtake Austria for 15th place, which is a significant step as it would grant a 2nd team in CL (qualifying rounds).
This would entail tho APOEL qualifying to semis over Real Madrid :D

- Ned and Ukr are closely vying for 8th-9th (less than .15 coef pts), which bear tho no difference in teams access list

- Portugal overtook France by 1 game point (= .166 coef, having both 6 entrant teams at season beginning). To make it up OM should earn in the end 1 point more than the two Lisbon teams combined, which is rather unlikely. At stake 1 less qualifying round to go thru in CL for their 3rd team

- Spain would need 27 game/bonus points to regain the ranking lead (a merely honorific badge).
With 5 sides vs Chelsea alone it's not far-fetched as it could seem, considering that Spain has the 2 juggernauts in CL, and 3 teams in EL where the opposition is not formidable

...
(Re: topic, Italy is currently losing further 2 coef pts in this season too, thus even if they return to perform better than Germans, it will take them at least 5 years to get back in the top 3)

Fistandantilus
16-03-2012, 13:59:26
Having less teams helps your coeff no?

Funko
16-03-2012, 14:37:33
Only if the teams are losers.

Fistandantilus
16-03-2012, 15:18:03
So in the case of Italy is a definite yes.

Back!
16-03-2012, 15:44:06
ok but beware:

the points are divided by the entrant teams

having less remaining teams does not help, if you started with many, on the contrary

so having less entrant teams (= your country was behind in the ranking) helps the results of the eventual strong hero one (e.g. Apoel) to weigh more

whereas Chelsea next results will be dragged low by the other 7 already eliminated english teams
same for Milan (provided they get any further point vs Barça)

Back!
16-03-2012, 16:14:55
for instance current season Italy coeff points are 11.214
http://kassiesa.home.xs4all.nl/bert/uefa/data/method4/ccoef2012.html

this is the average of the points obtained by the 7 entrants

19 Milan (and running)
19 Napoli
18 inter
12 Udinese
9 Lazio
1 Palermo
.5 Roma

78.5 / 7 = 11.214

if we take out Roma it would become 78 / 6 = 13

if we take out Palermo too it would be 77/5 = 15.4
but to have only 5 entrants, you must be 10th or lower, with just 2 teams in CL
so you'd have to take out too the 9pts bonus the 3rd team got for entering CL Goups (4pts) and progressing to KO round (5)
it would thus really be 68/5 = 13.6
(anyway a remarkable result for a team below 9th place: best this year is Belgium who closed at 10.1)
___

in Control Theory (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Control_theory) this is a classic example of stabilising feedback

- if you go down but you were really not that bad, shedding the ballast makes it easier for you to get back up.
If you really were that bad, you get results expected at that lower level and you stay there

- if you go up, you have to show that you really deserved it, and need to perform at the higher level with the new teams introduced.
If the extra teams can't keep pace with the stronger ones, they'll be a drag for the good ones and you'll go back down, having to renounce to the berths for extra teams which proved inadequate
___

the NBA Draft System (weaker teams pick first and get the best new players) is another example of stabilising feedback

Back!
19-03-2012, 09:05:06
stats about distribution of remaining teams are grouped here for both CL and EL

to avoid arbitrary sorting, I go with this season coefficient

Coeff - the Uefa Country Coefficient earned so far in the current season

T - entrant Teams
K - teams advancing to the Knockout phase

C - CL teams remaining
E - EL teams remaining

Q - teams advancing to QF

Country Coeff T K Q C E
Spain 16.000 7 5 5 2 3
England 14.000 8 5 1 1 -
Germany 13.583 6 4 3 1 2
Netherl 13.200 5 4 1 - 1
Italy 11.214 7 5 1 1 -
Portugl 10.833 6 4 2 1 1
France 10.500 6 2 1 1 -
Belgium 10.100 5 3 -
Russia 9.750 6 4 -
Cyprus 9.125 4 1 1 1 -
Greece 7.600 5 2 -
Ukraine 7.583 6 1 1 - 1
Austria 7.125 4 1 -
Turkey 6.625 4 2 -
Poland 6.625 4 2 -
Switzer 6.000 5 1 -
CzechR. 5.250 4 1 -
Romania 4.333 6 1 -

Back!
19-03-2012, 09:12:52
I thought I had posted this elsewhere, but can't find it


UEFA ACCESS LIST 2012-13

1- 3 4 CL (GS GS GS PO) + 3 EL (GS PO Q3)
4- 5 3 CL (GS GS PO) + 3 EL (GS PO Q3)
6 3 CL (GS GS Q3) + 3 EL (GS PO Q3)
7- 9 2 CL (GS Q3) + 4 EL (PO PO Q3 Q2)

10-12 2 CL (GS Q3) + 3 EL (PO Q3 Q2)
13-15 2 CL (Q3 Q3) + 3 EL (PO Q3 Q2)

16-18 1 CL (Q2) + 3 EL (Q3 Q2 Q2)
19-21 1 CL (Q2) + 3 EL (Q2 Q2 Q2)
22-27 1 CL (Q2) + 3 EL (Q2 Q2 Q1)
28-32 1 CL (Q2) + 3 EL (Q2 Q1 Q1)
33-47 1 CL (Q2) + 3 EL (Q1 Q1 Q1)

48-51 1 CL (Q1) + 3 EL (Q1 Q1 Q1)
52-53 1 CL (Q1) + 2 EL (Q1 Q1)

Back!
19-03-2012, 10:25:57
#11 07-11 country 08-11 2012 ranking #12 +/-

1 85.785 England 69.160 14.000 83.160 1 =
2 82.329 Spain 63.329 16.000 79.329 2 =
3 69.436 Germany 59.936 13.583 73.519 3 =

4 60.552 Italy 48.624 11.214 59.838 4 =
6 51.596 Portugal 43.513 10.833 54.346 5 +1
5 53.678 France 43.678 10.500 54.178 6 -1

7 44.707 Russia 38.082 9.750 47.832 7 =
9 40.129 Netherlands 31.915 13.200 45.115 8 +1
8 43.883 Ukraine 37.383 7.583 44.966 9 -1


11 34.166 Greece 29.500 7.600 37.100 10 +1
10 35.050 Turkey 28.950 6.625 35.575 11 -1
13 27.000 Belgium 22.300 10.100 32.400 12 +1

12 30.550 Denmark 24.425 3.100 27.525 13 -1
16 24.900 Switzerland 20.800 6.000 26.800 14 +2
19 20.700 Austria 19.200 7.125 26.325 15 +4


20 18.124 Cyprus 16.374 9.125 25.499 16 +4
17 22.000 Israel 16.000 6.000 22.000 17 =
15 25.141 Scotland 18.391 2.750 21.141 18 -3

18 20.850 Czech Rep. 15.100 5.250 20.350 19 -1
24 15.916 Poland 13.291 6.625 19.916 20 +4
22 16.124 Croatia 15.124 3.750 18.874 21 +1

14 25.824 Romania 14.491 4.333 18.824 22 -8
23 16.083 Belarus 15.083 3.125 18.208 23 =
28 14.125 Sweden 13.000 2.900 15.900 24 +4
25 14.499 Slovakia 12.499 2.375 14.874 25 =
26 14.375 Norway 12.375 2.300 14.675 26 =
27 14.250 Serbia 12.125 2.125 14.250 27 =


The leftmost columns show last year ranking, already used for the above Access List which determines the teams advancing from current domestic leagues.

The only significant acquired changes impact the 2011 13-15th tier:
Belgium, Romaina and Scotland are sending their 2012 Champion and RU both to CL Q3

Belgium advanced to 12th and will send their 2013 Champion directly to CL Groups, in place of Denmark's

Scotland dropped to 18th, and will send only the 2013 Champions to CL, one round lower, while RU'll go to EL
Romania dropped even to 22nd, which means same as Scotland with 2 of the EL teams starting even lower

In their place, Switzerland and Austria gained a berth in CL Q3 for their 2013 RU.
But that berth could still get snapped away by Cyprus, should APOEL qualify now to Semis over Real Madrid (!)